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SunOpta Inc. Message Board

  • stereo_net stereo_net Feb 25, 2008 7:47 PM Flag

    Kirk OT: Market Watching

    You catch the bloodletting over at GOOG today. $488 failed on volume. If you believe GOOG is a bellweather for the market (or at least tech) this isn't good. AAPL hanging onto its low by the skin of its teeth. Think I will add some TWM insurance tomorrow.

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    • I think $437 failed on volume too.

    • stereo,

      Thought I'd follow up on our brief chat on BKX/SKF. BKX broke its upward abc and now looks to want to retest its bottom (74.8). The fractal abc for the current down move has an expected D point of 77.90, with exhaustion at 70.40. If it pushes through 74.8 it has a long term expected D point of 50.14...which would put SKF off the charts. Based on (current) valuations and voodoo on BKX holdings I have a very hard time imagining another leg down.

    • You know when I talk FA I am just parrotting morningstar's analysis. They say "financial health" is average, but a little deeper digging finds them saying "the company has a very strong balance sheet"...no idea where the disconnect is.

    • I basically will be using a put option to enter the dollar. That is why I said the right way to play it. The dollar simply will not be allowed to go more than about 15% lower.

      If you subtract out the cash on the other ticker, p/e is less than 7. (roughly same for silc that is quite coincidental??)) That is the definition of a coiled spring, especially throwing in the huge short position, and all the attributes in the previous post. If, and a big if, the new tech gets enabled, and accepted in time for this xmas season, it can triple. If not, I can wait til next xmas! The short position is claiming the tech will not work. The multiple design wins with tier 1 manufacturers of the products it goes in, says different. those just materialized last month, so good chance for this xmas season. Anyway, it has catalysts all year long. and next year as well.

      The overall market is what dragged both down. (damned near everything) That is a temporary situation. The actual value of the business of both companys is almost 30.

      As for the balance sheet, that is what you are looking for, ones that look mediocre, but are in actuality good. What specifically make you say mediocre? if is goodwill, or intangible, they have valid reasons to carry it. And it is actually cheaply carried.

      Compare future prospects of that company, to any of its competitiors. The fact that they are roughly 3 products ahead of any competitor is the key. That explains expanding attributes in previous post.

    • we discussed OVxx on this board back on October 13h. At the time I said the charts and morningstar both said "over valued". Good call at the time. But in the same breath I said I preferred SILC -- not such a good call.

      Today morningstar says still a little undervalued (FVE=18). The charts say undervalued and breaking out short term. Not too late for a decent momo play at the moment.

      I'm surprised you like it so much, considering the balance sheet looks mediocre...

      As for the dollar, you might want to consider your words after the STKL debacle -- not your core competency and should have used options instead of shares and stops...that made a lot of sense to me.

    • I am willing to wait. Therefore, I can buy 1/4 when I said I would initiate, then play the last 3/4's down to the bottom. I already know the catalysts to reverse the trend, and the catalyst to send it to the extreme. the timeframe is truly irrelevant. I can also gauge the "value" of the dollar, so I know about how low it could go. Dry powder is only as good as the opportunity presented with. (as long as you still have dry powder at all times) The correct way to play the dollar has an amazing return potential. I am almost willing to bet Warren Buffet will be making the same bet, around the same time. Gotta beat him in, or you suffer the self-fulfilling prophet syndrome.

      More people have lost their collective ass' in gold, than have actually made money over the course of history. very similar to the airline investors. If the average investor is scared enough to get into gold, that fear never really leaves, despite the price of gold relative to other assets.

      The disconnect you speak of, is a key to wealth. Just gotta be willing to be "wrong" for a little while. "Wrong" really means early.

      remember the ticker I said I thought I knew what was going to happen in the near future? Can't remember which board we discussed it on. Started with ov..? Well, it happened. And should continue to happen for next 18 to 35 months. The chartists will probably say it is too late?? How many stocks in this market can sport: margin expansion, market share expansion, sales expansion, and growth rate over 40%, with a p/e of 10, and no debt?? Not to mention markets just starting to open up to an already established product line?

    • Here's something to gnaw on for now...I just crunched the short term charts for my 100 ticker random sample and found the broader market (as defined by the sample) is in major disconnect from the major indices. The "p3" value not only increased again, the rate of increase accelerated.

      Don't be surprised if another significant short covering rally occurs in the near future.

    • I agree re gold...paraphrasing Buffett: ya pay to dig it out of the ground then ya pay to store it in under ground vaults. Makes absolutely no sense to me. However, utility is not what gold is about...until conventional wisdom figures out it is not a hedge against inflation, it will be. Like the man said, it works until it doesn't.

      Buy the dollar? Talk about catching a falling knife! You said it very well...I forget the topic, but the idea was play the run not the absolute bottom.

      I understand the urge to make your moves, but until the next trend gives us a sign we need to keep our powder dry. "If you have to guess it isn't really there"...KWM.

    • I am not a fan of gold, EVER. Not going into why. This is looking like a late stage to be entering that run. How long do you think current conditions will last? i always prefer to look to the next cycle. As I like to be in ahead of it.

      I am considering buying the dollar after the next rate cut, assuming it is a big enough one to leave only one more in the chamber.

    • plural...they nudge more than push. My FEBIL says demand for gold is going to soak up every once they dump and then some. I'm not sure, but for an ignorant hump he's right too often to dismiss...

      I've got a ton of crunching to do this weekend...Sunday we should have a lot to talk about.

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