Thanks for adding that, I think those are good points. The even gloomier case could happen. And I agree AEA is a gamble. Not a core holding.
But I think reasonable handicapping on the gamble comes out a lot higher than the current price per share.
Even if there are equal chances of getting $10, $5, $2.50 and $0. The average is $17.50/4 or about $4.38. Almost no matter what kind of numbers I stick in, I can't make the handicapping come out anywhere in the $1.80 to $3 trading range that it's been sitting in lately.
Meanwhile QCCO seems to be sitting somewhere between the "happy" and "medium" scenarios, and they have a similar record in the same business. One way or another I think that gap probably will close up a lot.
The funny thing is, if AEA does zoom up to $4-$5 one of these weeks, then suddenly lots of folks will want in at that price. I won't have to tell the story then ... but the easy double will be gone.