Asian turmoil + DRAM oversupply and weak prices and a Goldman Sach gloom and doom scenario have sent the short termers on to greener fields. So it looks like an opportunity for us long term investors who are in TXN for its DSP/DLP future.
Goldman Sachs had a technology conference s this morning also contributed to the selloff. Analysts said supply problems were likely to keep memory prices depressed through the first half of 1998. They didn't mention TI specifically but the negative tone during the portion of the call relating to chip and semiconductor equipment shares apparently sparked the sell off among traders/momentum players.
Goldman analysts said Asian economic issues were likely to have the most direct impact on the chip and chip equipment companies, while computer services companies were among the best placed in the tech sector to weather the storm.
The firm did not recommend purchase of any semiconductor equipment stocks at this time, analysts on the call said
BankAmerica Robertson Stephens analyst Dan Niles. made some comments today saying the DRAM market is still really bad and it's going to hurt them a bit more than people had anticipated.'' However, he also said the drop in the stock was overdone, because TI draws more than half its profits from higher-margin digital signal processors, products not suffering from the same oversupply problems.
You might want to take a look at a speech given by TXN's chip svp at a Prudential Securities Conference yesterday. Obviously he's putting the company's best case forward, but it's consistent with what I know about the company (although I am no insider). The speech does give their assessment of the Asian flu, and the fortunes of the semiconducter industry for both memory and digital. -- as well as his assessment of where TI is going. So it might be worth factoring it into your decision making process. you can find it at: >http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971112/tx_texas_instruments_1.html
TXN is the most volitile stock in my porfolio. In fact I once sent an e-mail to the company to ask why it appears to be so much more volitile than its competitors. They replied that it wasn't (but it is) Short term 3-6 months I have a feeling that things are going to get worse. Long term 5-10 years, I think Texas Instruments will be a big winner because it is shifting its emphasis to two technologies, DSP and DLP for which the market is growing hugely. I agree with ekurich (message 85) that because of DSP, Texas Instruments has a good shot at being the Intel of the next decade. The rest of my reasoning I spelled out in my message 87. I own shares at $75 and $112 in my 401K. That first lot tumbled all the way to $40 before recovery -- I stuck a post-it with DSP on my monitor -- and I think I'll put it back up now.