Where do you see the stock price going between now and Jan earnings announcement?What will be the main drivers?Will the stock go down after earnings even if they meet expetations?Does anybody know the whisper # or is it to soon to tell? Earnings could be a defining moment for the stock in 1998 and I am trying to figure out how to play it in my 401k which is made up of TI stock.
Asian situation, general negative tone of stocks in the industry, and year end tax positioning could keep the stock price where it is to slightly lower (44-46 bottom?) over the next few weeks. Then a rally to the mid fifties should ensue. Shouldn't break key resistence at 55-57 until the week of earnings report (jan 20 +-). If it doesn't meet it's estimate (mean of 20 = .62) it could drift back to the mid to upper forties.
A beating of the estimate, backed up by decent reports of others (INTC, etc), should propel the price to the low sixties. Just before the report in April (est. .66) it could make an assault on 70.
This optimism is based on estimates for FY 97 being 2.11 and for FY 98 being 2.93 (both recently revised lower by 8+6 of the 20). This works out to a forty percent increase year over year; more than justifing a 20 -25 PE.
All this assumes the bull market regains it's footing.