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Mentor Graphics Corp. Message Board

  • blake71383 blake71383 Feb 23, 2011 1:34 PM Flag

    Icahn can't buy more or he would...

    he owns just under 15% so he can't buy more until management removes the poison pill

    he needs someone else to step up and start buying...right now, almost 30% of the shares are controlled by investors that would likely vote for any plan Icahn comes up with

    management only owns 1% of the stock...so they are stuck...if they try to ignore Icahn, Icahn can even hire a bank to find buyers on his own

    Icahn is giving the greenlight to buyers letting them know that even if they make a hostile bid for MENT, it will likely receive shareholder approval since so much of the stock is controlled by Icahn and other activists

    if the market hadn't tanked for 2 days, MENT would be trading around 16.50 or higher

    a lot of people are selling anything they can...also, with earnings tomorrow, a lot of people will wait until after earnings to buy...arbs don't want to get crushed on an earnings miss when they are only interested in the stock as a takeover target

    i think MENT ends up getting bought for 18-19 in a strategic deal...this is not the type of company to be bought by PE

    short term, I think the deal gets priced in and trades back up to 17 when earnings are done and current activist holders (other than Icahn, increase their stakes)

    good luck

    an easy 20-30% to be made on MENT

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    • blake_is_needy@bellsouth.net blake_is_needy Feb 24, 2011 10:08 AM Flag

      Period.

    • Well said.

      I might add that the strategic value of the assets MENT holds are of great value to different parties. CDNS is interested in the Calibre platform. That's a cash cow for MENT. PMTC can take the board design and benefit from MCAD/ECAD integrations. TMSC could also jump into the mix and benefit from a software play that it lacks.

      All-in-all, MENT is sitting pretty good. It know it has the assets to maximize the shareholder value. In the process top mgmt will walk away with a nice nest egg.

      The worst outcome here is for the employees. Uncertainty will force people to leave. But as an investor that's least of my concerns. I would just vote for the highest bidder without any sentimental attachment to what they intend to do with the company. Plain and simple...

 
MENT
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