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United States Natural Gas ETF Message Board

  • rjperg rjperg Dec 19, 2008 6:36 PM Flag

    winter snowstorms takes nat gas lower....

     

    so all you weathermen pumping cold weather...get off the cold weather kick...it has no effect on nat gas. NO EFFECT GET THE PICTURE? IVE BEEN PREACHING TO MUCH SUPPLY LESS DEMAND FOR WEEKS NOW. I WILL SAY THIS..I WILL BE BUYING MORE ON MARGIN SOON,IM NOT LETTING UNG WIN. UNG TO THIS POINT HAS REALLY SUCKERED INVESTORS PRETTY GOOD.

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    • Last year the price of natgas dropped on option expiration. It seem to do that every year. From the end of December natgas prices start to move up. Factories are closed for two to three weeks. They keep minimal heat on. When the workers return the heat goes back up. The price and profits of the gas producers are down big. Remember that last year they were putting gas into reserves at $10 t0 $13.89. They need for the natgas price to go higher. They are cutting exploration and slowly shutting down rigs. I believe that we will see many drillers both oil and gas taken out by mergers and buyouts. The surviving entity may cut even more production. Good for the price of natgas.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN1943324620081219?rpc=44

      FOX.

    • I bought UNG and DXO as a hedge against DTO profits that I wanted to hold until next year. NG usually moves higher from mid december thruog mid february. However this year may be different with the recession, credit markets, and crude falling. If crude begins to move higher in Jan, NG should follow and move into the 7's. I was looking for 9's but believe that is now unrealistic. That should move UNG back into 27-29 range where I will get out. Long term NG is probably good bet as I believe that Obama will move electric grid completely off oil and on to NG, coal, and renewaables. I also believe he will move transportation off oil and on to LNG and electric. My guess is 2020 elecric grid 20% coal 50% NG 30% renewables and trans. 20% oil 30% electric 50% LNG. JMHO and may be a bit agressive but I believe the country is ready. A tale tale sign will be if he mandates all federal vehicles be LNG in 10 years. This will force manufactures to make LNG vehicles and force suppliers to make infrastructure changes. Also plays into stimulus plans.

    • Weather does have an effect, it just takes a lot longer than you think to kick in.

      I have been a bull on UNG and butting heads with you RJ for a while now, but this drop below the lows with inventories same as last 2 years and the extended cold makes me start to agree that we may go lower.

      Those of you who think we are guaranteed to go up, had better take a look at the DOW chart in October of this year.

      There had ALWAYS been an election rally in presidential election years. Didn't happen this year and lots of us (including me) got killed being long waiting for the rally.

      Same thing can happen to NG. We all think it's got to run, but this break below the lows this time of year is VERY bearish.

      NG could drop below $2 which means sub $10 UNG if drop in demand overruns cold weather usage.

      Since Dec futures have now expired, I will be moving out of my position in 10-25% blocks if we keep going lower.

      The charts never lie and first lesson from the school of hard knocks is you need to lose your opinion or you will lose all your money.

      Better set an max pain stop and get out if it falls below your stop.

      • 1 Reply to jpsgroup
      • Although NG can fall at bit lower, it will only be temporary. Immediately the massive cold weather nationwide will increase draws, and if,as expected, this is the coldest winter we've seen in years along the East coast population centers we'll see above normal draw downs for the months of Dec. Jan, and Feb. The market is forward looking and certainly the nay sayers have been touting the over supply mantra. Frankly, yes, the US certainly can become an exporter of LNG, but not at these prices. The new raft of shale plays are not economic at sub $7 gas, and there will be a drastic curtailment of drilling activities and well shut ins when the price drops below $7.50.
        We are already seeing that with rig counts down and decrease in capital budgets going forward.
        I bought massively yesterday starting at $22.80 all the way down to $22.20.
        Remember, the cure for low gas prices are low gas prices.
        R

    • It has hit a triple bottom on the rsi line and should bounce nice next week.

    • close your positions and buy dia mon morn and hold to end of year.

    • NEVER BUY ON MARGIN.....NEVER

    • Hey rj all you have to do is wait untill next month and you will be fine . Feb at the latest i dont know if you hold for a few weeks or months but it will go back up! I get nervous myself when something tanks and i did not have a stop on and i let it go down down down. But i have learned from a few stocks to always use stops so you don't get in a jam. Hey at least you are in a stock that will rebound . Good luck man and relax

    • That sucks rj, especially with the holidays and all, this sh it can really take valuable time away from your family and other things that matter. I was into the QID for quite alot back in 07 when the market took off to frothy levels and all i could think about was this can't last and it went up and up and freakin up until it finally broke and I was even in 4 days and then made a ton of money. But a man has to sleep at night so it gets tough sometimes. Last year UNG didn't take off until Dec 26th, yep after the third thursday options expired. So something to look forward to. Try and enjoy your weekend, there's more to life than freakin money.
      http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG#chart3:symbol=ung;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

    • businesses shut down when get cold, and for christmas, so less demand.

      • 1 Reply to snow_tracks
      • All I can say is be careful buying on margin. Rj, it sounds like you have done that before. Try not to take these stocks personally. Trying to "beat" this stock is a dangerous emotion to battle. Rj, I know you're in @ 35, but margin means possible calls.

        I lost over $100,000 in 2000 trying to beat stocks by using margin. Almost lost my family over it.

        If never have used margin, best choice is to stay away. You have interest to pay and brokerages drool at the though of letting you use margin. Really, I'm trying not to sound preachy, but simply think rationally anout this stock. Rj, you yourself see the pitfalls of this stock. Heed that wisdom.

 
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