The question is why is UNG up at all. Ther is still 12% premium and ~2.000 contango loss to work off. So it needs to drop another 3.00. Fundamentals still way out of whack. I guess the new shares have to actually hit and the rollover has to actually take place for that to happen. I don't see why the market does not discount those certainties immediately, though.
So, you should see that UNG should track NG, after a NG rises 45%. Until then UNG should actuall be much lower.