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United States Natural Gas ETF Message Board

  • aapl2020 aapl2020 Sep 21, 2009 8:00 AM Flag

    DEC & JAN contracts already show a dramatically decline in contango cost

    DEC contract=5.272
    JAN contract=5.534
    Not steep contango

    The next roll dates, October 14-19th would be the last rolling dates period that UNG has to carry "steep" contango.

    After this date, all shorts will turn long. There will be no more juice to squeeze for the bearish bet.

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    • Contango always flattens at 3-4 mo out, so that is normal. Who knows wen thengo will really end.

      Mweanwhile another day of high premium and way overpriced share price.

    • There are several factors you are not considering. I don't have time to go into all of them. However, if nat gas prices do rise that high in late Nov., Dec., many of the shut in wells will be returned to full capacity. Producers desperately need to make money to deal with their enormous debt. They will flood the market with NG driving the price down.

      Also, nat gas is one of the most volatile markets in existence. Look at any long term price chart. Trying to predict prices and contango months in advance from a couple of day's data points is a fool's errand. There is a reason that nat gas is called "the widow maker."

      Contra's post above makes some additional intelligent points you need to consider.


    • How can you force the "not steep" contango between Dec09 and Jan10 futures stay in this range?

22.475-1.035(-4.40%)Nov 21 4:00 PMEST

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