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United States Natural Gas ETF Message Board

  • mikedunn1999 mikedunn1999 Mar 19, 2010 8:51 AM Flag

    What is the nat gas cost of production?

    What is the nat gas cost of production? If I knew that I think I could predict the low?

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    • Not really. The NG producers typically sell their future production on the NYMEX going out 12 to 18 months or longer. On the CME you can get prices for contracts going out to Dec 2018. If they can lock in 1 to 2 year's worth of production above their own internal costs, which will vary from company to company, then spot price fluctuations don't disturb their production schedules as much as one might think. We hit $2.48 last year and still almost topped out 4 TCF in storage.

    • Even at approximate drilling break-even points at $3.50....history has proven that different hubs can go down to $3.00.

      Henry Hub...now at $4.064....so potential DROP..for SAFE entry point....is ANOTHER $1.00 DROP.

      • 1 Reply to xj62001
      • I think the difference right now is that the storage tanks have a lot of space available. In August, if storage tanks are chock full again and there really is no additional room, would could see another extreme spot price drop. I have a stake in ung right now and feel good about it, but I would be far more aggressive if we were in August looking at cold weather coming. When I go to stockcharts.com and look up the $natgas chart, the RSI is below 23 which is lower than when we hit the nat gas low at the beginning of September last year. Nat gas right now is in extremely oversold territory and a bounce is definitely coming, but with Spring just starting and the rebuilding of stockpiles just starting, I'm having trouble getting very aggressive. Late summer is probably the best time to bet on a rally imo, and early Spring is probably the least desirable time to do so. I'm definitely long a stake now, but even down here I'm (as always) almost expecting things to get worse before they get better. This strategy prevents me from going overboard and making the classic mistake of bottom fishing this thing, which is to go in too long too fast due to overconfidence!

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