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United States Natural Gas Message Board

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  • s.eranger Nov 14, 2011 4:05 PM Flag

    UNG is a BUY here

    Yeah well...this thing might bounce, but where will it bounce from...$7.00? To what price...$8.50?

    This is one of the worst investments, (I shouldn't call it an investment) I've ever seen. I should have fired my financial guy over this, but I have to stand accountable as well. I said I wanted to play Nat Gas, but had no idea this was trading contracts and how flawed their strategy is...look at the chart. You won't find a bigger dog anywhere. This is a losers game. I'm down $22K...I'm thinking about just selling this and moving on.

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    • Most all the etfs that I play,have their own individual issues that make them unsuitable for investment equities, but useful for short term gains either short or long. I can't think of any of them that I would hold for more than 6-8 weeks under any circumstances.

      For those who are unable or unwilling to do research and make the effort to understand the business models of the individual equities in any sector, ETF's seemed at first to be a easy way to get exposure, but they are more akin to a mutual fund where each one has it's own particular drawbacks for investment (buy and hold) types.

      I am not a investor. I trade, so these issues of fees and currency carry, and backwardization vs contango are not problems that I have to consider very much. I never hold these things long enough to matter.

      I don't think this security will recover in any meaningful way unless some outside force changes the game of nat gas. I would not just dump your load either at this point, but what I would do is take each run to the upside, and sell a portion into the strength, taking your losses over time while you watch how it trades. You might be able to limit the loss in this way. will lose if you have held this for months, because the constant state of play with natural gas being over supplied will cause the fund to continuously lose money as long as this condition exists. This would happen to any fund of this kind and it does for various reasons like UUP.

      That is why I only try to trade the 15-20 cent pops, and I fail at that 2 of three attempts and have to bailout. I do the same with FAZ, XLF, EUO and numerous others. This only works if there is high volatility. (like now) Otherwise, I stay away from them.

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