I am looking at the 5 year chart for the Spot Price here:
And then I am looking at the 5 year chart for UNG here:
There appears to be almost NO reaction on UNG for the large increase in the spot price happening from Sept 2009-Jan 2010.
Has anybody else noticed this? What is the explanation? Doesn't make sense. Was the contango that much larger at that time period? Any thoughts or explanations would help me better understand what is going on with UNG. Seriously, look at that time period 09/2009--01/2010. Why minimal to no spike at all???
Charts no longer mean anything.
That is why there in no more short selling.
You would have to be somewhat crazy.
God bless and do what you feel you have to do.
I strongly suggest you don't fight an uphill....
The investment seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of natural gas. The trust will invest in futures contracts on natural gas traded on the NYMEX that is the near month contract to expire. --Fidelity Investments
I also suggest you do not sell at this point. Way too many things point up.
It's always the unintelligent people who can't justify their position that resort to name calling. Please ignore any future discussions I may be a part of. Also, please don't reproduce, we don't need your genes to carry forward.
I don't understand risk/reward? You just called me a "looser" what exactly does that mean? Come back and talk to me about understanding risk reward after you understand the English language and basic vocabulary and know how to have a meaningful discussion.
I'm sure people thought NG was really high at March 2008...any shorts went on to lose another 30+% until it reversed downward.
ng is now at 23.6% retracement....this is not even close to trendchange....its actually the required retracement after ending wave 5....it extended so far out the weekly 20 sma, that its gonna crash just as fast as it went up.....keep the diaper on at all times....
in 2008, including contango, ng went up by 50%....i'm now shorting at ng being up almost 50%......so....mr clueless...what exactly is ur point? long term, contango included, ng is going to zero.....if u make a mistake u'll get trapped and loose ur last pair of undies.....
its always better to be short ng.....LOL....wdf are u talking about.......u probably are a looser thats why u dont understand whats risk/reward means......
the higher ng goes the better short it is......and its very high right now...its like owning a stock with a dividend....
Duckboy a big reason for this was the spot price spiked down near the end of SEP 09 along with the expiring OCT futures contract. Ung already rolled into NOV so you didnt see as drastic of a move down in UNG as the spot at that time. There was something like a .75-1.00 cent contango from oct to nov. Might have even been more but im just going off memory. Hope that helps answer your question.
Can you tell me why the shorts don't believe we are entering a period similar to January 2008 through June 2008? It seems to me long is the new direction for NG and hence UNG?
I guess without seeing the actual roll rates for that time period it is hard to truly know.
Please look at the 5 year chart and explain to me the effects of contango on a $100,000 investment starting from January 1, 2008 and closing out on June 30, 2008.
A six month period. So before you say, look what eventually happened, please answer this, would it have been better to be short January 1st or start your short June 30th. And before you say, "end result is all the same", please assume you don't ever want to have an unrealized loss greater than 40%. So tell me what do you think...January 1, 2008, sit on the sidelines, go long, or go short....which seems smartest to you?
You seem to be a close minded fool incapable of having an intelligent discussion.