I see what you mean on the five yr spot price chart. Is it because UNG reacts to the futures price not the spot price? I'm also curious about the references to the Fibonacci retracement. I tried to study up a bit on it. Could someone well versed in it explain the implications for UNG? One guy said that if we past 2.65 on the spot price it can mean continued breakout but if not we have the risk of retracing some of our recent gains. Is that a correct interpretation?
I think the answer to my question must be backwardation during that time period...which is what we could see happen again in the coming weeks/months.
As far as Fibonacci goes, I personally have a difficult time accepting chart analysis as a means to determine the worthiness of an ETF (UNG) that is based on the futures price of a commodity. Commodities don't care about Fibonacci, prices are purely supply and demand driven, in addition to any market manipulation that may be taking place.