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United States Natural Gas ETF Message Board

  • h00t22 h00t22 Oct 26, 2012 12:35 PM Flag

    Why NatGas is heading to 2's just like last year

    1) Higher than expected production
    2) Warmer than expected winter
    3) Faster than expected debottlenecking of existing supply

    Fundamentals are much worse than they were a year ago yet HFTs managed to run up the price a dollar above where it should be at this point in the cycle.

    And as always - UNG is always a SELL in contango.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Don't forget the ongoing switching back to coal. Right now "normal" winter is expected, NG prices will retest the lows in a heartbeat if the winter is warmer than normal.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Usually but not last month as the price went above the Contango price. I might agree with your longer term assessment of NG going back to low $2s if we get a warm winter again. Prognosticators are not always acurate. Last year they were calling for a cold and snowy winter. Here's a thought. Is it possible that NG price has moved up so that shorters can make a pile? Pump n dump perhaps? Hmmmm.

      • 1 Reply to peterino123
      • IT is too kind to say that those who forecast the Weather can be wrong some times.
        IT is no coincidence that those same scientists who predicted severe hurricanes that never materialized and missed massive storms like Andrew or Katrina were made by the same ‘scientists’ who have been insisting for decades that man-made ‘global warming’ will destroy the planet in ten years.
        Meteorology is as much a science as is Political Science.

        IF Florida Freezes Over This Winter AL Gore will still be whining about Global Warming and he will still be sucking up slabs of pork ribs, gallons of fine wine and running his A/C 24/7.


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