You know I look at some of these weather forecasts and I see a problem. For example one says "Normal temperature derived from CRU monthly climatology from 1901-2000." And then they have a map that compares the current weather forecasts with these 100-year averaged "normal" temperatures. With me so far? The problem here is that due to global warming, 100-year data isn't worth looking at. CO2 levels are sky high compared to 1900. We all know temperatures are increasing. At best we should look at the last 20 years of data to get "normal" temperatures, not 100. Temperatures are in a long-term increasing trend. We only look at 5 year averages for NG storage levels. So compared to the last 5 or 20 years, are we going to have above or below "normal" temperatures? That's my question. Compared to the last 100 years, it's almost a given nowadays that temps will be warmer.
The point being all we need for an average 5-year draw are average 5-year temperatures, ceteris paribus.