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United States Natural Gas Message Board

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jan 15, 2013 3:09 PM Flag

    Blatant Censorship on Shale Gas Controversy

    They have finally imposed communist style information cersorship on the fact that the US shale gas industry is a bubble to be burst! People be aware, when vested interest group feel the need to use such extreme censorship to supress useful information that investors want to know!

    Seeking Alpha author Mark Anthony has been critizing the US shale gas industry. He used compelling data and statistics to show that production of shale wells decline fast and fall far short of projection, and that the shale industry is deeply un-profitable, and it will lead to the collapse of the US natural gas industry. Go to Seeking Alpha to ead these pieces before they disappear altogether:

    As a result of dirty hands of vested interest group from the industry, Seeking Alpha now completely banned Mark Anthony from writting any article or instablog posts, making any comment on any article, or even responsing to any private messages sent to him for private discussions. He can still receive private messages sent to him. But he cannot respond any more.

    Mark Anthony is considering filing a complain to SEC on blatant information supressions and market manipulation by Seeking Alpha. He has done tremendous research to dig out the truth of the shale industry. Agree with him or not, the public deserves to learn what Mark Anthony has discovered in his research. Especially when it involves a trillion dollar industry, the public need to know the truth. The public deserves to know the truth and hear different opinions.

    The shale gas industry is a bubble to burst soon, due to high debts and deeply money losing shale adventure. As a result, natural gas supply will be disrupted, leading to much higher gas prices, benefitting the US coal sector. But I have repeatedly warned people that UNG, a paper future contract based ETF, is NOT the right vehicle to reap profits from the looming gas price rally. Stay clear of UNG and move to coal names JRCC, ANR, ACI, BTU, WLT etc.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • You still don't believe that shale oil/gas developers deliberately exaggerated the well productivity, the EUR?

      Depletion of shale oil wells or shale gas wells is MUCH steeper than suggested by Jim Roger's 38% number. I suggest people who are interested in finding out to visit North Dakota DMR (Department of Mineral Resources) to study the data of monthly Bakken shale oil productions. They have month by month and well by well production data, which is perfect for such study.

      I have surveyed virtually ALL of Bakken wells and studied how they decline. Here are the averages that I got:

      1. All existing wells, several years old or those finished just yesterday, can be lumped into one group. The collective decline rate of the group is -0.2%/day, or losing 0.2% of production rate per day. That translate to loss of -50% in one year.Note this is the for the whole group. Newer wells decline much faster that that, and older wells decline slower than that. Collectively they decline -0.2% per day.

      2. The average initial production per well is roughly 400 BOE (barrel of oil equivalent) per well. Combine this number with the collective decline rate of -0.2% per day, gives an EUR per well of 200,000 BOE per well, as 400 / 0.2% = 200,000. This is far lover than the EUR estimates that producers would tell investors.

      3. Confirming my numbers, notice that from Feb 2013 to Mar. 2013. Bakken added 142 new wells, yet production is virtually flat going from 925.58 MBOE/day to 928.83 MBOE/day. The number suggests that adding 140 new wells in every 30 days is the level needed to maintain flat production. Thus you are exchanging 140 new wells for 927 MBOE/day x 30 days = 27.81M barrels. Thus ultimate production per well is 27,810,000 / 140 = 198,643 BOE, or 0.2M barrels per well.

      Shale revolution is a hype. It is a giant Ponzi Scheme and a bubble that will burst soon. When it does, it is tremendously bullish for the US coal sector. Stick with ACI, ANR, JRCC, BTU

    • The so called shale gas revolution is a giant Ponzi Scheme promoted by the Wall Street to drill on the wallets of un-suspected investors.

    • could the problem be as simple as the low price of ng? I realize its not ng but some gold miners went thru this years ago. even 4 dollar gas has to be tough on margins

    • The scam in the shale gas industry is beignrevealed bymore and more people. They can not keep covering things for long.

    • Another coal company just filed chapter 11 ,,,,,,,,,,,,, Trinity Coal Corp. creditors with about $104.3 million in claims filed an involuntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition for the Essar Group unit.

      Units of Credit Agricole SA, ING Groep NV and Natixis filed the petition today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Lexington, Kentucky. The creditors also filed an involuntary petition against Trinity affiliate, Frasure Creek Mining LLC.

      Essar Group, the Indian business group controlled by billionaire brothers Shashikant and Ravikant Ruia, acquired Trinity Coal in 2010 for $600 million.

      “Trinity’s current management has failed to negotiate with Trinity’s creditors,” Credit Agricole said in court papers seeking the appointment of a Chapter 11 trustee.

      Essar Group officials didn’t immediately respond to an after-hours request seeking comment on the involuntary filing.

      The case is In re Trinity Coal Corp., 13-50364, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Eastern District of Kentucky (Lexington).

    • They can try to ban me from disclosing the truth in the so called Shale Gas Revolution. But they can not hide the SCAM for long. They can not stop me from speaking out. America is still a free country, thank God!

      The entire Shale Gas Revolution is a Ponzi Scheme. They banned me because they feared people hearing the truth from. I did my own independent research to learn how the Shale Gas scam is played out: They over-estimate well recoveries, under-estimate well decline rates, and under-calculate the fair armortization costs. But they can not hide the fact that the shale gas industry has accumulated more than half a trillion dollars worth of debts after producing just 23 TCF of shale gas.

    • Information censorship will not work!

      The shale gas industry is a looming crisis. The shale gas bubble will burst soon, due to high debts and deeply money losing shale adventure. As a result, natural gas supply will be disrupted, leading to much higher gas prices, benefitting the US coal sector. But I have repeatedly warned people that UNG, a paper future contract based ETF, is NOT the right vehicle to reap profits from the looming gas price rally. Stay clear of UNG and move to coal names JRCC, ANR, ACI, BTU, WLT etc.

    • Make no mistake about it:

      Seeking Alpha is NOT neutral or un-biased. It is a blatant market manipulation tool. They have worse information censorship than communism. In a communist country at least people are free to communicate privately. Under Seeking Alpha's system, once they slap censorship on you, you can not even response to private messages.

      The Shale Gas Ponzi Scheme is blowing up soon, respite of the information censorship. You have heed the warnings. Don't invest in any shale gas company!!!

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Last year you pumped coal to no end writing articals its the buy of the century. We all told you coal was crashing and would continue, you had 60% percent invested in PCX which is now in Bankrutcy, you had another large amount invested in JRCC, you bought both of these stocks at extremely high prices and lost about all your money. Know one that writes for Seeking Alpha ever agreed with you, you cost many people to lose large sums of money because people here and other boards dont know that anyone can write for Seeking Alpha and get paid for writing garbage. You were the only writer who tryed to malnipulate the coal market by pumping it, your lucky people arent sueing you. Anyone here want to know this mans history go to the JRCC board and ask whats Mark Anthony`s record in coal perdiction and if you should follow his advise? Now go pump your coal on another board or try Ihub if they will even allow you on there.

    • Read on the web what people like Artuhr Berman and Chris Neddler had to say about shale gas.

      I don't just blindly listen to them. I dig out the data myself and analyze the data myself to come to the same conclusion. The shale industry LIED, deliberately. They are doing their best to supress the truth. The truth is shale gas is deeply un-profitable. It is only sustained through heavy debt borrowing and through a Ponzi Scheme where un-suspected intesctors are lured in.

      Sentiment: Hold

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