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United States Natural Gas ETF Message Board

  • ahande ahande Jan 24, 2013 4:07 PM Flag

    Look at UPL Message Board

    for the message with the subject: Storage should be well below 2000 bcf by the middle of March.

    Yahoo is ignoring my post here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • If you look at the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report the chart shows it probably goes below 2000 bcf in March every year.

      • 2 Replies to najerapeter
      • 26-Feb-10 EIA-912 861 296 580 70 510 1737
        05-Mar-10 EIA-912 789 289 548 63 485 1626
        12-Mar-10 EIA-912 770 283 562 71 491 1615
        19-Mar-10 EIA-912 760 285 581 80 501 1626
        26-Mar-10 EIA-912 753 289 596 89 507 1638
        02-Apr-10 EIA-912 750 292 627 101 526 1669

        11-Mar-11 EIA-912 697 221 700 111 588 1618
        18-Mar-11 EIA-912 675 222 715 121 594 1612
        25-Mar-11 EIA-912 668 216 740 131 608 1624
        01-Apr-11 EIA-912 616 221 742 138 603 1579
        08-Apr-11 EIA-912 623 221 763 143 620 1607
        15-Apr-11 EIA-912 652 222 780 143 637 1654

        17-Feb-12 EIA-912 1232 370 993 217 776 2595
        24-Feb-12 EIA-912 1174 365 974 214 760 2513
        02-Mar-12 EIA-912 1114 352 967 216 751 2433
        09-Mar-12 EIA-912 1059 345 965 223 743 2369
        16-Mar-12 EIA-912 1049 346 985 232 752 2380
        23-Mar-12 EIA-912 1073 344 1013 247 766 2430
        30-Mar-12 EIA-912 1084 349 1039 260 780 2472

        You are correct in that it goes below 2000 in March almost every year. But in 2012 it didn't. The lowest it reached was 2369.

        We could be at the 2369 level with the next three reports. Like I said the next report will have 5 frigid days (1/20 through 1/24) . The report after that will have at least 3 frigid days (1/25, 1/26, 1/27). The week after that should have 3-4 frigid days based on the long term weather report now. .

        This year it is surely going to go below 2000 and we have only 450 or so gas rigs. So, it is not going to go build up very quickly after that. At least that is my guess.

        I think we see $4 handle very soon. This is the reason why some producers (notably UPL) have been adamant in not establishing hedges for 2013 and 2014 yet. Maybe, just maybe they know what they are doing?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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