You are correct in that it goes below 2000 in March almost every year. But in 2012 it didn't. The lowest it reached was 2369.
We could be at the 2369 level with the next three reports. Like I said the next report will have 5 frigid days (1/20 through 1/24) . The report after that will have at least 3 frigid days (1/25, 1/26, 1/27). The week after that should have 3-4 frigid days based on the long term weather report now. .
This year it is surely going to go below 2000 and we have only 450 or so gas rigs. So, it is not going to go build up very quickly after that. At least that is my guess.
I think we see $4 handle very soon. This is the reason why some producers (notably UPL) have been adamant in not establishing hedges for 2013 and 2014 yet. Maybe, just maybe they know what they are doing?