the surplus is shrinking. EIA says production is up but so is demand
EIA production forecast is up but demand forecast was also increased
EIA expects that natural gas consumption will average 70.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2013 and 70.0 Bcf/d in 2014. This month's prediction is a significant upward revision from last month's expectation of 69.7 Bcf/d and 69.4 Bcf/d in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
the longer nat gas stays at 3 and change the longer and higher the price will be in a year or two
it is pretty easy to make a spreadsheet of the largest nat gas producers and their forecast for 2013. EIA keeps forecasting or estimating increases in production while the actual producers are showing declines in production with projections of further declines
the actual nat gas surplus is shrinking weekly. When it is gone and production is done year over year the nat gas price will be $4-5