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United States Natural Gas ETF Message Board

  • repeat_the_future repeat_the_future Feb 15, 2013 2:17 PM Flag

    have U read powerburn today?


    Key quote:

    "At some point, investors are likely to take notice of the widening spread between last year’s and this year’s storage levels—which sits at 270 BCF and, based on my projections, will widen to as much as 435 BCF by the end of the withdrawal season--and trade off that bullish trend. Further, now that prices have fallen under $3.25/MMBTU, natural gas once again becomes competitive with coal for electricity generation and I expect to see some short-term coal-to-gas switching to provide support for prices in the $3.10-3.20/MMBTU range"

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    • I agree that drawdown will be lower then last year but higher then the 5 year average at the end of the season, but i wont bet it as being bullish. My reasoning is that i dont expect a hot summer like last year which was the hotest in 75 years, second we were in El nino year which had 14 hurricanes which close rigs in the gulf area a couple of times causing larger drops in builds last summer and should expect the normal 8 to 10 hurricanes and hopefully not as bad as last year. So basically i think investors will keep an eye on summer builds which should be higher then last year bringing that 435 BCF back up faster.

    • Looking at the Noaa 6 to 10 - and 8 to 14 day charts I only see some cold on the West side of the country and not moving toward the East so I am not so sure about the cold making such as big a differnce as PB seems to think. I also looked at the 1 month out chart and it does not show much cold left at all.
      Looks more like Old Man Winter has run out Frosties.

    • Bullish report all the way around. Gas and gas co got clobbered though.

      His 5 week withdrawal estimates are impressive
      Under 2 end of season

12.78-0.46(-3.47%)Apr 20 4:00 PMEDT