No one has the stones to take this long here... so its going down no matter what the reports say
Last week's report beat the estimates from a day before when NG traded at 3.26... but no one cares! They just focus on the fact that it "missed" raised estimates and now trades at 3.15 - this is how you know that any short you take will work - when the market ignores good news
Your thinking is good! I just think timing is too soon. I'd avoid making a decision in Feb 2013. It is volatile month ever. I'd wait toward mid March to be sure. This sounds more safe than shorting now. Eventually, it will go down. That's a fact and seasonal trend. What we do not know is magnitude of up or down until the injection begins. If you are thinking that below $3, yeah.. it is a safe play... If it is around $3, cost of carrying is not worth waiting for a month to realize gain... Just my 2 cents!
hate to say it but you may be right. She may have one more pop yet but we headed to the shoulder season. How low do you think NG will go? Also be prepared for it to liftoff sometime in march or april. Last years turn was mid april. A surpise like an unplanned event could also effect the price upward.
oh, just saw your question... I think she goes to 3.07 - just low enough to take out 3.09 stops from January... but a lot of coal to gas switching occurred at those prices in January - so there is a floor there too
you can short literally any rally here and be fine... she isnt going up for a while - but not far down either.. the long only funds will start thinking longer term than a couple of weather reports on any weakness