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United States Natural Gas Message Board

  • ccie4297 ccie4297 Apr 2, 2013 7:30 AM Flag

    Latest Bentek Report Highlights

    Bentek NG report out this morning with data points that either verify or smack down some of the claims being made on this board....


    The supply data shows that natural gas dry production increased by 0.8 percent in 1Q 2013 to 64.1 Bcf/d versus the same period last year 63.6 Bcf/d (red circle) and by 1 percent this March versus last (blue circle)

    Residential and consumer demand – mainly home heating - was up 22.4 percent or 0.8 Bcf/d in 1Q 2013 versus the same period last year (yellow circle on the table) and this reflects the cold winter weather (which is now coming to an end)

    In contrast the consumption of natural gas to generate electricity or power burn fell during March by 15 percent versus last year or 3.3 Bcf/d (magenta circle) and by 2 Bcf/d in 1Q 2013 versus 2012.

    So far in 2013 reduced demand from power generation has been countered by increased residential and commercial consumption for heating. That heating consumption will decline as temperatures warm up. Which leaves more surplus gas to be injected into storage.

    Robust production, high prices and lower demand cannot co-exist. Something has to give.

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    • Both Production and total NG supply have been flat for 4 months now. This is following increasing production for the past 3 years. I have taken all the year on year and month on month data from Bentek and graphed it. The trend is clear - a reversal of increasing NG production. For the first time in years NG supply has stalled, and will now start to decrease. This has been verified by the CEO's of the large NG producers....

    • +1, somethings gotta give.. I'm sure the hedgies will splash the gas to coal headline shortly. if the bentek report is even closely correct, residential and commercial demand will change winter price action in 9 months and I believe we'll see a shift in recent UNG year over year trends. if it plays out to me you want to be in UNG by sept.

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