The injection data does not seem to justify a nearly 5% increase, and usually Thursday direction trends to continue on Friday trading. NG at $4.50 is possible by tomorrow. I think that the price is going to start affecting the demand.
You are right. I saw the following in today's BTU report:
"First quarter U.S. coal demand saw strong improvement over the prior year as generators switch back to coal and away from higher-priced natural gas in key regions," said Boyce. "We now expect that during 2013, coal will recapture the vast majority of its 2012 demand that was lost to natural gas."
I just went thru BTU's report. They are estimating a reversal of the Coal to gas switching from last year. I Agree with this to some degree. Many coal plants are shutting down - mainly smaller less used plants, but still this was coal baseload gen. It will be replaced in part by larger coal plants for now. But for peaking power gen this summer - only NG gen can do this efficiently. So we will have to see how much cooling we need this summer.
Also as my model has show, starting in 2013 we will see significant increases in NG demand from industrial uses - chemicals, plastics, fertilizers, methane, gensets, etc.....With NG supply down in 2013 this could mean more pressure upwards on NG prices. My simulation I posted here when NG was a $3.3 still stands - NG at over $5 by year end.