Well, I was right: right about inventories and prices. We're on our way to my $4.75 target and then to $6. Since $6 is the break-even for the industry, we are going to $6. But even at $6 I don't think they'll invest. Why would they? To break-even? No, I think they'll wait some more until it's actually profitable to produce natural gas. At $9, the industry has a 50% operating margin. So that's my new estimate: $9.
Where are you taking this numbers??..
Here is from Bloomberg report:"...average break-even price for Marcellus dry gas (as opposed to wet, which contains ethane and propane) is $3.08, vs. $3.21 in Haynesville..."
there are a ton or morons that think the market cares what prices these companies overpaid for land and leases a few years back... they assume the market just HAS to price to make the weaker players profitable
these guys have no clue how capitalism works or how the futures market works... but they are literally all over the place - not very bright, but even stupid people in numbers can move a market
supply/demand is all that matters, not who made mistakes and overpaid for NG years ago
you are right that some producers are profitable at sub $4 NG - at current lease prices and rig efficiencies
No clue who you are, but I've been on this board for months warning of a coming shortage in nat gas. Check my old posts. I've been right. So know who you're talking to before shooting off your big mouth.