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United States Natural Gas Fund, LP Message Board

  • ahande ahande Apr 26, 2013 9:08 PM Flag

    Powerburn over estimates NG injection numbers 2-3 weeks out

    I have been reviewing the numbers on Powerburn's site. The numbers are accurate for the current week in question. However, he has been estimating a lot higher for readings two or three weeks out and then revises it downward significantly.

    Remember that he 3 weeks of 100+ injections. Now 2 of those 3 weeks he is projecting 80 & 95.

    For the week of Apr 20-26 (to be reported next Thursday) he had estimated 59 a couple of weeks ago. He has revised it downward to 30. This will be 37 lower than the 5 year average.

    For the week of Apr 27 - May 3rd he had estimated an injection of 104 a couple of weeks ago. Now he is estimating 80. Same for the following week revised downward from 106 to 95.

    The weather for the just concluded week (Apr 20-26) was certainly a factor as it was very cold for a few days. Yet, it can't account for a difference of 29 (his revision).

    I am predicting that it is a combination of the weather and slowing production. I stick by my assertion that EIA is misreporting the production information.

    Now, next week's weather will be interesting. Dallas might break 100 year old cold records.

    Google "Low Rain Chances Tonight, Mild Weekend, Cold Air Returns Next Week".

    If this turns out to be true and we get both the weather (and increased NG use for heating) and some production cuts resulting in an actual injection in the 50-60 range instead of the projected 80 for the Apr 27 - May 3rd, then the Nat gas bears might just throw in the towel as we will probably be about 150 below the 5 year average. I am hoping :-)

    Forecast 3 weeks ago
    Actual/ Forecast now
    2013 storage
    Diff from 5-yr avg
    5-yr avg Storage
    Apr 6-12 29 32 -7 1701 1,778
    Apr 13-19 33 30 -20 1734 1,828
    Apr 20-26 59 30 -37 1764 1,895
    Apr27-May3 104 80 11 1844 1,964
    May 4-10 106 95 12 1939 2,047
    May 11-16 --- 110 20 2049 2,137
    May 17-23 --- 103 11 2152 2,229

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I have noticed the same pattern with Powerburn for the last 60 days with his 3 week estimates being wrong.

      Considering that Powerburn says at the bottom of the page that he uses the weather as the basis for his predictions he has not been very accurate.

      "uses meteorology and climate data to predict supply/demand status of natural gas"

      Concerning the weather forecast I have been looking at the Weather Centre blog which has been fairly accurate in predicting the colder weather. Could Powerburn be surprised for all of March/April by the cold weather 2 - 3 weeks out? If you follow the weather it has not been a big surprise.

      There have been comments from many people over the last few months that the weather this winter was not really that cold to explain for the rapid decline of the gas storage levels including several articles on Seeking Alpha.

      EIA critics have said for awhile that the EIA natural gas statistics are overestimating production since they do not agree with state natural gas data especially from Texas and Pennsylvania. If the EIA and Bentek are inflating production numbers, then rapid storage withdrawals are really more about declining production than the weather. ccie4297 likes to quote Bentek numbers, but can we rely on this data?

      If you are into weather forecasts, this week the Weather Centre did an analysis for the coming winter based on the 2012 - 2013 winter pattern. The Weather Centre prediction is that the 2013 - 2014 winter will be very cold for the East of Rockies US, so the storage level better be full in preparation for a cold winter.

    • Not the same data Bentek provides in the Analytics Reports. You want the real weather chain associated with energy you must purchase custom weather charts that truly affect the /NG price range. Last factor is coal vs. ?NG and currently coal is going to kick NG #$%$. Than how many Nuke plants coming online since today and following week? UGAZ 16 ish to 40 ish peak within a month and half cycle. People really enough media copy hype. Now AHANDLE why did /NG spike this afternoon?

    • if your sample size of observation is "march/april" then you would have seen the abnormally cold weather effects that no one anticipated pulling the numbers in each week

      if your sample size of observation were a bit more valid... and went back over a year like I have been watching - you would see the numbers go both up and down with the weather...

      so the point of your post is completely invalidated because you chose to look at too small of a sample size


      04/26/2013 –
      Market Recap Analytic Report (Weekly)
      Dry Gas Production Near All-time High

      BENTEK's estimate of dry gas production is higher this week, up an average 0.5 Bcf/d from last week to 65.1 Bcf/d and topped by levels of 65.3 Bcf on both April 21 and 22. April's month-to-date estimate of 64.7 Bcf/d makes this the third-most productive month since BENTEK began tracking production in 2005, topped only by November 2012 at just below 65.1 Bcf/d and December 2012 at 64.9 Bcf/d. Demand was mostly flat to last week, up just 0.2 Bcf/d due mostly to a 1.2-Bcf/d bump in res/comm as cold temperatures persisted from the Rockies across the Upper Midwest.

13.56+0.22(+1.65%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT