from PB's blog we are getting close to the five year deficit becoming surplus. that's gotta be spooking traders.
"the year-over-year deficit will continue its steep slide to -529 BCF, down from over -800 BCF in April, while the deficit versus the five-year mean will inch closer to par, sliding to -39 BCF, or less than 2% from average. "
your're on the right track but way too early. we need another 6+- weeks of injections for it to pass the 5 year. keep in mind the 5 year avg history is a moving target. of course less demand during summer we get there faster.