ANY stock can POTENTIALLY fall to zero.
There is no way to predict a bottom for a stock.
If you want to use history as a guide, pull up a 10-year chart of CLF. The move up early this year followed by the move down looks like a blip, an aberration.
CLF simply got way ahead of itself and corrected. Where will it end? Who knows. Could be the 2000 lows at 28. Could be the point of the last breakout of any substantial base at 25. Could be the lows of that base around 15. Could be the 2004 lows around 5.25.
Point is, there is absolutely no reason CLF can't keep falling here even to the single digits. The market is back to where it was in 2004. Is it so farfetched that CLF can get there as well?
Today's rally is a selling opportunity folks. Enjoy.
You stirred up the naysayers but don't listen to them. They are not interested in truthfully answering your question. Buy all you can at $ 40 and you'll double it in 1 yr and quadruple it in 2.Harbinger Capital Partners might have had a sayso in the replies to your question; if it's going down the drain do you think that HBC would want 1/3 of a defunct company?
What does Harbinger do if they see redemptions of 20 or 30% of their assets under management?
$160 per share in two years? A brave man and a brave prediction......
If the Fed hires Mugabe to run the Central Bank, it could easily happen however......
My question would be, what price was CLF trading at between 2000 and 2004 before the commodities rally? I suspect that is the answer in regards to how far the stock could POTENTIALLY fall. Iron ore demand and steel production in China (and subsequently prices) are falling off a cliff.....
If commodity prices continue to decline stocks like CLF will have a rough go even when the bear market ends.
Look at what happened to POT and MOS and the other ags today. These stocks are broken and will not recover for years.
As for whether or not this is near the end of a bear market, who knows. There is no precedent for what is going on right now. The so-called "fear" indicators are at historic levels which should indicate that Monday was a bottom, yet today we undercut those levels.
Right now there is no reason to believe we are not just in the first stage of a protracted bear market such as those experienced in the early 70's and 2000-2002. We just have to hope it won't be like the one experienced in the 1930's.
The market will tell you when it's time to buy.
I would suspect your right, I am also guessing that Harbinger ran for the doors when this market tanked 700 points.
Especially if they had a levered position.
Harbinger is down quite a few billion dollars on this thing.
You watch, they will be out of the picture during the next time a disclosure comes out.
All fine and good, except people dont forget there is a floor on this stock.
Big mining companies, STILL throwing off cash. ONe of them or one of the steel companies will just buy out CLF.
CLF has excellent assets, and is going to make a lot of money EVEN after the commodities sell off is over with.
he fundamentals for this company are great, they are still throwing off a ton of cash, and will continue to do so.
This is a play on the continued globalization of the world. Commodities might be a little off, but we arent going much lower on them either. China might not be buying as much as they did last year, but they are certainly buying a ton more than they did 4-5 years ago.
I think its getting to be a very good time to start buying.
When to get in?
I suspect when Harbinger finally capitulates.
It owns 18% of the free float.
Who is going to buy all the stock when/if Harbinger has to sell?
Most stocks Harbinger owns consist of 10+% positions in the individual stocks.
That implies horrible liquidity......if Harbinger is seeing large redemptions...well....don't get in the way is all I would advise...
i agree with you, i just meant that buying near the end of a bear market is much better and ideal for long term investors than buying during a bull market.
i also agree that the best move is to wait for a real bottom and buy when the market starts to recover a bit. missing the first 5-10% move up might not be as bad as guessing this is the bottom and wishing that you had waited till 20