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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

  • scootr1971 scootr1971 Aug 23, 2012 5:19 PM Flag

    Anyone Buying CLF here?

    I added some to my retirement portfolio near the close 50 shares@ 39.30.
    Upping my share count to 200. Avg price is just under $41.
    I am willing to wait and collect 6%.
    Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Not yet. The down trending price is not to my liking. The gold miners went through this a decade ago. You are making the right decision to buy the Best in Class. I am trying to time my entry as to get a better price. I believe you can time markets and make good profits. This is one of those times, to watch the price action closely, and hope for a good entry price.

    • china is in the process of renegotiating a method of setting the contract price. We will not see a turnaround in the spot until that happens. They have secured their own market with the stockpiles, and can control the spot at will. Because clf (and everyone else's) contract price depends on the spot for contract prices, they can afford to drive this as low as they wish until the miners cry uncle. They have either subsidized their domestic miners, or written them off as a price for doing business to promote their domestic steel industry. Technicals have no place in this one. It's a war of wills and china is the buyer.

      I wouldn't be accumulating until there's an announcement of negotiation about that contract price. This is my own opinion, so you can take it or leave it, but I'm not in this market because I don't think it's reliable until I see someone blink.

    • i can't predict what's going to happen in a few years, so it might be a good buy if you're holding for awhile. the dividend is very safe as its payout is very low, but going forward in the near term, its earning will probably get hammered again. i would wait awhile before buying more, i dont expect it to go down to $15 -2009 levels but it will probably go lower than $38-35. just keep buying in small lots like you've been doing and i think you will be highly rewarded if the markets come back in a year or so. good luck. it has iron and coal, just bad news for it right now.

    • Was thinking about averaging down but my 100sh that I had left had a 74 cost basis. Could buy another 100 now and lower the basis to 56 but I still wouldnt be in very good shape. On the positive side it would probably not be the new buy that I would lose money on.

    • Thank you for all the input...looks like another day to cut my hands on the knife.
      My biggest concern is the price falling thru the 36 support line and falling back to the 20's or lower.
      This may be possible as it will be back to the level before any of the QE's started.

      If QE inflated the prices of commodities and in turn this company, the potential downside is substantial. As long as the divy is there it may provide some protection....but I do fear the value of my position may be cut in half...I am widening my scale as I continue to build into the name.

    • Buying right now in blocks of 2500-5000 shares towards position of 50k total. Blood everywhere and sky is falling so time to buy :-)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I think you should be really cautious and not eat all the snacks before dinner starts. This has been a falling knife and with BHP cutting cap ex for this year and shutting down expansion projects ASAP does not bode well for Iron Ore. This down turn has not run its course. The good news is that when the upturn comes, there will not be a glut of production hitting the market due to these shut downs and should drive the price up quicker.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • you do realize that the dividend may not last but several more quarters if things continue to deteriorate so far they are well covered but things do look grim but maybe all the blood is in the street and you are in at the bottom. Gltu and your retirement fund.

    • I'm in this week also. way overdone for a financially sound Co. with a big divy and lots of EPS. Coal and ore interests in many places around the world, much more upside potential than additional downside from here. patience will pay off......when it turns, it will turn big and the apparent value will be blinding to those looking for beta and lot of upside.

    • I'm buying, but i'm also aware of global slowdown and oversupply of iron ore. ore in the ground is better than money in the bank these days.

      • 1 Reply to jwsull
      • I bought 5000 shares at the close. I will wait for a spike to 41+ and sell covered calls, $45 strike, Jan '13 expiration and try to make a quick 15%+. Iron ore usually goes up in the 4th qtr. Bloomberg has a good link, but Yahoo won't let me post it. The truth is that China and India are going to continue to grow. China's growth may slow to 5%, but they will consume large quantities of copper, iron ore, soft commodities, etc. Good luck from an old retired analyst. I also had purchased FCX at $32.50 a couple of months ago. President Humala will use the revenue from copper to support his social agenda

        Espero que tengan suerte con tus actiones

        Sentiment: Buy

 
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