Following are the critical reasons that CLF will continue to fall.
If a stock has fallen from 72 to 20 does not mean it is a buy and similarly if a stock has gone from 8 to 68 does not mean it is a sell. Now following are the reasons why CLF will never rise.
1. China infrastructure build up is completed.
2. India 's infrastructure build up is completed.
3. Europe is completed.
4. Middle East is completed.
5. USA infrastructure is also completed.
6. Its true about Russia and South America.
That means we don't need so much iron, steel and met coal. Now having siad that
7. Solar panels are producing electricity so we don't need met coal o melt reminescent demad of steel.
8 Nat gas is another player that is hurting met coal demand.
9. CLF has cut dividend and issued more shares. Dilution factor.
10. Ploymarized plastic is replacing steel.
11. Most govs are in serious debt. They can not afford infrastructure build up.
12. It is all about demand and supply. Supply is too too too much and demand is none to 0.
So best is to buy refiners and avoid CLF and coal and other steel companies. Its not late to short CLF.
having been a bear and still a little bearish I would say you have not thought this out and done DD very accurately 1) china is still building but at a reduced rate and a long ways to go 2) India has not really gotten going much less done 3)Europe doesn't have the money but is mostly built out 4)Middle east has a long ways to go since they keep blowing up their infrastructure 5) USA in serious need of a lot of infrastructure but budget problems 6) russia is a slow boat to nowhere and SA is the place to be in the future 7) solar panels have never worked economically and won't in my lifetime (I am 64) that is an AL GORE lie 8) NG is what will help IO become more economical against 10 as costs of refining and transportation will go down and bring more jobs back to the USA 11) agee 12) supply is a serious problem with rio and vale bringing on more production each than CLF sells in the next two years but demand is still up not down on a long term chart. That is my view. The major problem here is the oversupply situation the rest are minor bumps. What will help CLF the next few years the most will be the NG supply in the USA and what that will mean to our employment picture and manufacturing if we can get the green politicians off their derrieres
Harvey, you're 85% wrong on your points 1, 2, and 6.
If they had phone lines and electricity, you would be able to call anywhere but eastern China and learn this. Or, you can fly into Shanghai, take the bullet train as far as it goes, and then travel 11 days to speak face-to-face with the folk you say have everything.
India, of course, is all screwed up. Those on the grid have brownouts at least 20% of the time. Need the revolution + 20 years to get it built out.
Now, having said that, I do think we're going to see single digits for CLF within 12 months. Having been there before with these guys, it's a BUY BUY BUY in the $7-9 range.