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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

  • scootr1971 scootr1971 Apr 24, 2013 10:15 AM Flag

    Anyone else see a rising wedge forming?

    A rejection at or near ~18.78 may confirm this a reversal setting up or a continuation of the current downtrend? Earnings have been revised up a lot .26-.45 over the last quarter.

    While IO prices have stabilized is this enough for them to beat?
    Did they raised estimates by almost double to ensure a miss or are things just that much better?
    Will they use a miss to drop the stock closer to 2009 lows $13.xx
    Will they use the miss/drop in share price to grab shares from those with tighter stops and weak hands.

    Shorts are still winning because the trend hasn't changed. Yet.

    Place your bets. I own CLF, but I admit to being extremely cautious here because I think I can get a better price, soon. AH possibly thru Friday.

    A correction in the broader market is fast will this weak name perform?
    Is a rotation underway from consumer staples into more industrial/commodity names?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • You say "a correction in the broader market is fast approaching". Hopefully, Cliffs will have at least decent earnings and guidance, so as traders exit overpriced stocks and look for underpriced ones to put their money back to work, they'll discover Cliffs.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to southbuckeye
      • I am very cautious here...while i believe they will beat .26 easily, not so sure about .45.
        Lots of shorts in this name. People are greedy and trends tend to overshoot.
        I think this name will get cheaper before we see $20.

        I have witnessed a common play where a company misses earnings then guidance is just ok, and after a brief dip the stock rockets catching many off guard as they ask themselves why is this name going up when they missed? Well they only missed because guidance has been raised 6 times or more this have to ask yourself why?

        Is it because the shorts need/want more downside...raising the estimates prevents a huge beat.
        Keep the name cheap to cover and build a new long position.

        I think a turn around in weaker names like BTU, CLF, is coming. Just not sure of the time-frame which is the most important piece of the puzzle.

        Please take note I am a novice investor who is wrong frequently.

        Just posing questions for others to answer themselves.

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