Cyclicals on the move and rotation starting, China growth still over 7%, Home builders stocks up big along with earnings, Upgrades in these industrial metals stocks coming, Most of these stocks have been oversold. Did anyone even believe we would get anywhere near 3% gdp and here we are at 2.5% up from .4% last q.
Yes, macroeconomic analysts believed there would be a 3% GDP. That was the forecast and it was off significantly. You think they actually estimate for the hell of it?
Listen, let's be honest here... In healthy economies, the materials tend to go up first, since they're the "building blocks" of the economy. Look at copper, steel, aluminum... everything. They're trying to tell you something. This stock market has nothing but air under it. There is a disconnect between stock market and the real economic situation of the country. Once the momentum in the stock market (mainly jetfueled by computers and maybe easy printing by the Fed) subsides, you will see a "back to reality" scenario. Most smart money already knows this and they've been raising cash for the past month or so.
Fundamentals need to strengthen before the market can legitimately rise on its own feet. People under 35 have no idea what fundamentals actually look like... They've never seen them in their lifetime!
Then you have the weakening dollar. Usually materials go higher as the dollar weakens. That's not happening this time. This is another major cause for concern. The economic picture isn't looking too good.
All I can say is... Stay thirsty and keep drinking, my friends!
What you fail to understand is that the materials may come out last. Let's be honest, the economy has improved, tremendously, over the last 5 years. By the time Bushy was finished, so was the stock market, along with the housing market. Staples, tech, and retail came out first. You haven't been here. None of us have. For you to *simply^ make the conclusion that the materials will not make a move because of the "fundamentals" is a fallacy that you have not experienced either, none of us have experienced 2013 yet. Have you time-warped from 2015 back to 2013 with this definitive answer? I think not. The materials will come out and they are the last to come out of this market. You better take a look closer before you make false assumtions just because you are older than most. I typically look at people such as yourself as easy prey as you follow the mainstream media. You did not make this call at $100+ BUT I will say this, you are making this call at $20. Let's see how this plays out and let's see if you and your fundamental theory are correct or completey WRONG.
Ive been investing in stocks for the long term for over 25 years and have learned to buy them when they're beaten down and left for dead, out of favor or when there is a defined upward trend. If you believe materials will never be used or in demand again stay away. If you believe that this is just a temporary pullback and the markets are adjusting then stocks like CLF, FCX, VALE etc... should be bought and held for longer term. If your time frame is a day a week or a month, you better look elsewhere!
CLF is a international play more then domestic and china still growing at 7+%. Do you really think Obama is going to take away the punch bowl now? The fed has pumped this economy up and will not let off the gas until their are some credible signs of recovery. If you have stayed out of this market cuz of the fake pump of the economy ,you have missed out on huge gains. Believe me I know, I shorted this market 2 years ago for awhile in disbelief of a recovery. Lossed my ars and have came around since to agree with many others. Dont fight the Fed. Too much money has been thrown at this economy for the fed to pull back now. I do agree that the economy is all smoke and mirrors and that the numbers have been manipulated for quite some time. The proof is in da pudding. The Gov will make the illness fit the perscription. GL