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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

  • scotteweisslogistics scotteweisslogistics Jul 13, 2013 6:40 PM Flag

    Peabody Earnings BTU July 15th-Need to Monitor

    Earnings announcement and effect on it stock price will be useful to watch on Monday. BTU and CLF are in a similar industry, faced similar challenges, and both have seen their stocks face very similar patterns over the past year. Their stock prices are actually priced very near each other right now. (BTU $15.99, CLF $16.86). How Peabody goes might be how CLF goes as described in the cockroach effect in Finance. Let's hope for a good earnings report from BTU. A good report followed by a price appreciation could be a very good signal for CLF's while a bad earnings report followed by a sell off would be a very bad signal.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Although I was mistaken on the earnings date, I was definitely right on the mark a few weeks ago when I announced on this board that BTU's earnings announcement today would be a strong indicator for the CLF stock and the sector.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Well, we got great earnings from BTU, something I didn't expect! Looks like the market didn't expect it either. Could see a bigger upside surprise out of CLF.

    • I see where BTU reports earnings on July 23 on Yahoo and in their company announcements.

      BTU is primarily in thermal coal and has some met coal. I don't see where they are the same as CLF. BTU posted a loss last quarter and had a loss in Q4 prior to writing off discontinued operations whereas CLF had a profit in Q1 and in 2012 Q4 when you take off the non cash goodwill charge. Finally, BTU's book value is around $18 whereas CLF's is $32.

      From where I sit, CLF needs to get to $29 a share to compare with BTU. I would rather own a company that is primarily iron ore with some met coal than a company that is tied primarily to thermal coal.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to w999surf
      • You make absolutely great points and I stand corrected on the date. I guess the main point I was looking to make is in any industry, particularly, commodities, always important to the board to monitor the competition or like business as the results come out . Other than that, i agree with all of your great points which is the reason I purchased over six figures of CLF and $0 of BTU!

        Sentiment: Hold

    • well said, bit in CLF we now have a rudderless ship, waiting to be tied to another ship ( mining company) to be rescued ? Thats what Im banking on, that and the huge short positions

      • 1 Reply to daleray47
      • Agree completely. Holding/purchasing CLF shares in the hopes of a buyout is reason enough alone due to the potential huge upside. Take it from me. My last two big stock holdings were Cooper Tires CTB and Alexion Pharm. ALXN. I sold both a few months ago and made a nice profit of about 10%. Was pretty happy. However had no idea they were buyout candidates. CTB was acquired 1 week after I sold it and the stock went up nearly 50% in 1 day, ALXN now has a pending possible acquisition and went up 15% just yesterday so I definitely have sellers remorse and wish I had held onto those stocks prior to selling. Of course, I took all of my proceeds and have purchased over 6 figures of CLF last month. I hope everyone learns my lesson about being patient with this stock. Having the crab retire was the first piece of good news, folllowed by the rise in iron ore prices. This have been well received by the market in the past week. With over 30% of this stock being shorted based on the premise of iron ore pricing going down (it has gone up) all it will take is 1 more piece of good news to pop. Others are in Las Vegas this week playing blackjack, hoping to make a few dollars. Here's to being patient, holding CLF's, and to makiing much more......

        Sentiment: Hold

3.86-0.35(-8.31%)Jul 2 4:02 PMEDT