For example, if CLF reports earnings of 0.75/share will share price rise or fall?
I guessed earnings will be 1.58/share and price will rise, but I'm curious what people think the minimum would be for it to be " good news".
Truthfully, and this makes sense if you think about it critically, it doesn't matter a hill of beans what Q3 earnings are... without some very strong guidance or indications of continued strong growth through Q4 and 2014 through 2016. IMO
Think in terms of PE. If it hits 80 cents, then we would be looking at $32 at a 10 PE which is an extremely low PE. My guess is still $1.30 which is based on Q2 without any impairment charges and is a conservative number as iron ore and met coal prices have increased as well as number of tones of each shipped is more. At that number a 10 PE would put the price of CLF around $50.
The answer is: Whatever is enough for some big money to take the opposite trade of the shorts. If big new money comes it then that is when this stock with pop. My guestimate is $1.20-$1.40 per share. I think if it hits these numbers there would be enough incentive for new big money to come in. If it comes in at $0.88 then perhaps a little movement. I am in for the long run whatever the earnings.
Unless it come up with $2.00 per share, not much movement can be expected to take it above in this environment. And shorts are sniffing to burn it alive. If it passes $25 tomorrow at close, we might hope that $30s would be in a near future. Who knows if the old Fox (Icahn) tweets, we all be in $50s. Hope he will see it in his dream tonight and shot it tomorrow..:-)