This is the time of the year where those who are momentum traders come to a board and make silly post statement showing a deep like of understanding of the stock or the things impacting its price. Kissmynards you win the semi-silly post of the day award. I agree it may not "run" to $30, but like Surf said the odds of bad earnings are pretty small. They may not even communicate great forward guidance, but 3rd quarter earnings will be stellar.
Do you know how to compute the probability of an event? First of all you need to figure the percentage moves of variables such as iron ore prices, met coal prices, shipping, currency, interest expense, cost... then you figure out the odds of an event. Based on the fact that all of the variables are positive, the odds of a positive earnings event is in the 80% range. In my opinion, holding a short position is very high risk and you won't be able to pull the trigger fast enough to cover.
With such a high short interest? I think eventually after a good earnings the stock will have a huge run up. Last 2 reports have been good, better then expected. Like you said the stock didn't run away, but went up a little only to go back down. With the high short interest, eventually things will go differently. And i don't see how a bad earnings report is posibile, with iron ore above $130/ton when they were projecting $90 around this time