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CAI International Inc. Message Board

  • dpaynter03 dpaynter03 Sep 29, 2011 2:13 PM Flag

    Baltic Dry Index

    Since 1 July the Baltic Dry Index (BDIY:IND), a good world trade indicator, has risen 36 % (52% since 1 August), while the Bloomberg U.S. Container Leasing (stock price) Index (BNCONLS:IND) has fallen 32 % since 1 July. What a discrepancy!

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    • The dry baltic index is an index of charter rates - the daily rates shipping lines pay to lease ships. It's not really a good indicator of overall health in the sector. There are other indicators like frieght rates Asia - US West Coast. Rates are near historic lows because of a glut of ships. This could be good or bad for container leasing companies. On the one hand, it increases the risk of a customer bankruptcy, but by and large most containers are recoverable. On the other, it means shipping lines won't be building their own containers and will be leasing more.

      • 1 Reply to tooslow68
      • toslo...

        With lower ship charter rates and higher fuel costs, it makes economic sense for the cargo shipping industry to reduce ships' cruising speeds. This factor can to some extent moderate (increase) the demand for containers, since each trip can take a few days longer, but with significantly reduced fuel consumption.

        If Europe goes into recession (as it appears that it will), the CAP operation there could be hit hard. Asian markets look to continue to be strong, and this is where most CAP growth is happening.

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