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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Message Board

  • cosmicml cosmicml May 8, 2013 6:44 PM Flag

    Getting Pumped

    Commodity prices are weak overall. Corn and copper are down significantly year to date. In the last five weeks, macro-economic indicators have dropped to the lowest point seen since 2009. We are in a recession. This is likely a bounce for the money managers to unload. Nevertheless, there is the Bernanke put and we can all wish. How lucky do you feel?

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    • Bought some calls today for June/August timeframe (190-205s). Scaling back into what I think will be an upswing for the ferts - especially those like CF with high nitrogen exposure. Interesting to compare their guidance/outlook to AGU - much more optimistic which may be one of the nuances between their marketing areas. I think natural gas is going to plateau in the 3.75-4.50 range and if E&P companies add more rigs to Marcellus/Haynesville, then probably getting more bearish. All the associated gas produced with the tight oil is keeping gas production ample despite much lower rig counts. Coal competes with gas in the 4s so I am not overly worried about NG prices short-term and hedges will help manage some volatility. I like the buyback discipline and the cost consciousness of this company and think that it keeps wringing out more margins and efficiencies from its expanding operations.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • This yahoo link says it all check out the economy from 2008 to 2011 can compare the results to the news reports.

      http://news.yahoo.com/is-the-economy-getting-better-obama-view-romney-view-interactive-map-145414541.html?bcmt_s=m#ugccmt-container

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Freddie Mac, the No. 2 provider of U.S. mortgage money, on Wednesday said it reaped its second-largest profit ever in the first quarter, a reflection of housing market gains - looks like a recession to me...

    • lol are you kidding me with this post? Desperation sinks in. Corp prices are right where they started the year and are on the upswing. Natural gas is up, but largely hedged away & despite being up it's not much more than last year. Energy production for nat gas is lower this year than last. Projections for the next year & a half are for nat gas to hover around $4. With more & more oil fracking, the US is going to be awash in nat gas.

 
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