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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

  • cinemabyte cinemabyte Mar 31, 2012 1:03 AM Flag

    HG EARNINGS BREAKDOWN = $STOCK PRICE

    If Hunger Games made:

    $153 Domestic opening weekend
    $59 Int'l Opening weekend
    $29 Weekday gross (Mon -Thurs)
    $71 Estimates 2nd weekend
    $28 Estimated Int'l 2nd weekend

    $340 TOTAL BEFORE END OF MARCH QUARTER....

    LGF has 143 million shares....

    $340 million bucks into 143 million total outstanding LGF shares = $2.38 per share earnings for the quarter


    WAIT... Take $80 million off the table (cost of making the movie and marketing)

    $260 million bucks into 143 million shares = $1.82 PER SHARE EARNINGS for the quarter


    That puts LGF stock at a 7.7 PE RATIO currently @ $14 per share

    IF we give LGF a 30 PE ratio with $1.82 earnings = $54.60 stock price


    NOTE: Figures do not include Mad Men, Twilight, Expendables 2, or any other TV show or film they have, nor HG music, or DVD sales.

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    • Quote where somebody said theatre gets 50%. No one said that. Your Arguing to yourself. Read more carefully next time

    • This is where the money goes... Theaters get ZERO weekend #1 and lose money weekend #2.... Buy your popcorn if you want the theater to stay in business.

      http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/movie-distribution2.htm

    • I APPLAUD YOU! YOU HIT IT NAIL ON!!

      THANK YOU FOR AN INTELLIGENT ANSWER.

      I'm tired of the ignoramous on here saying theaters get 50%!!

      That's like saying McDonalds has to pay the landlord of the lease 50% for all burger sales. Where do people come up with this stuff. Are people that fracking DUMB!!

    • Hey dumbbutt costs including all expenses is $80 mil..

      theaters get 10%.... If they are lucky!

      there the frack do you get 50% mr know it all??

    • I read somewhere (no link) that studios are usually valued at a cap to revenue ratio, because PEs usually don't make sense for them. It was something like I.6 -1.8 cap / 1 revenue..

      So at 2bil revenue you would deserve a 3.2 billion market cap, or roughly $24.61.

    • $13.49 Thursday

    • $12.49 Thursday.

    • I'm no expert, but that seems a bit outlandish.

      Did you factor in that the stock price (market cap) has already doubled in the last year in anticipation? That's close to $800 million. I'm not exactly sure how that maps to revenue, but it makes me think. How much is this movie worth? Not $800 million, thats for sure.

      At $53 per share, the company's value has gone from ~$1 billion to $7.5 billion on the back of one movie, in one year. "Hunger Games" is worth $6.5 billion?

      If all 4 hunger games, and the last twilight do $500,000,000 each, thats $2.5 billion of *revenue*.

      Hopefully, my understanding is flawed. I don't really know anything about the movie business and am just trying to use common sense.

      • 1 Reply to sdizazzo1
      • You have to factor in all the other movies coming out. Their content library. All the revenue their tv shows are generating. The value of their content library. The money they are making off licensing their content from epix.

        The value of the Hunger Games content being added to their library as well as twilight. The licensing deals they are making off hunger games, twilight and any other shows including the albums.

        I believe they made a million off each mad men show shown on netflix and thats just for netflix in america.

        The first Hunger Games might generate a billion in revenue on its own from movies, blu ray, sales off itunes, licensing, etc...

    • They only get 50% of the receipts from the movie. They might not get all international money as they sold the rights to pay for producing the film.

      You also have to account for taxes on the profit so take about 35-40% off that.

      • 5 Replies to jabroniass2001
      • http://themovieblog.com/2007/economics-of-the-movie-theater-where-the-money-goes-and-why-it-costs-us-so-much/

        Economics Of The Movie Theater – Where The Money Goes And Why It Costs Us So Much

        Posted by John Campeaon 22. 10. 2007in Favorites, Features

        Boxoffice-LineThe attention and interest generated by the article I put up the other day on Why Commercials Before Movies Is Worse Than Piracy continues to generate a lot of discussion (and so the topic should). One of the recurring emails I’ve been getting from a lot of people is the question about why it costs so much to go to the movie theater(in light of the commercials and ad revenue the industry is making for itself), where does the money go and how do we make this stop?
        Much of what I’m writing here now is a lot of paraphrasing from a chapter in my abandoned book project from a few years ago. But here’s the gist:

        1) Who Gets What From Your $10 Ticket?
        Ok, so you walk up to the box office and drop down your $10 to buy your ticket. Who gets that money? A lot of people assume (as did I at one point) that the movie theater keeps 50% of it, and the rest goes off to the studios. That’s not really true.

        Most of the money that a theatre takes in from ticket sales goes back to the movie studio. The studio leases a movie to your local theater for a set period of time. In the first couple of weeks the film shows in the theatre, the theatre itself only gets to keep about 20% – 25% of the green. That means, if you showed up to watch Bridget Jones’ Diary on opening night, then of the $12 you put out for a ticket, the movie theatre only got to keep between $2.40 and $3.00 of it.

        That’s not a lot of money, especially when you think about how much bigger and elaborate theatres are these days. It’s not cheap running one of these places. It can get even worse. This percentage will vary from movie to movie depending on the specifics of the individual leasing deal. For instance, 2 movie theatre managers told me that for Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones, the studio took 100% of the box office take for the first week of release. Can you imagine that? They had to over staff and have above normal capacity flood into their theatres… and they got to keep $0.00 from the ticket sales. That almost seems criminal.

        Now, as you move into the second and third weeks of release, the percentage starts to swing to anywhere from 45% – 55% that the theatre gets to keep. It gets better after the fourth week when theatres generally can keep up to 80% or better of the ticket sales. There is an obvious inherent problem with this arrangement. I don’t know about you, but when I finally get around to seeing a film that’s already been in the theatres for 4 or 5 weeks, I’m usually one of the only people in the place. It doesn’t do the establishment a lot of good to keep 80% of the ticket sales when only 14 tickets are sold per show. And with more and more and more movies getting released every week, the length of time that a movie stays in theaters is shrinking. Bad news for the movie theaters.

      • Maybe we can open up a McDonalds on your block....

        Don't you know, the landlord gets 50% of the amount of burgers sold!!

        OH GEEZE!!

        Where the hell did you get your idiotic figures? CRACKER JACK??

        HG sales MOSTLY like 90% goes to the studio!! Or else Lionsgate would NEVER be profitable and theaters would be LOADED with cash! NOT!!!

      • It's not 50% MORON! Studios work on a tiered system that favors the studio. Theaters get paid mostly by concession. We learned this in business class!

        That means if you own a grocery store, the store gets 50% of products sold just because it's on the shelves? NOT! Don't be dumb!!

 
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