We've added about $1.50 EPS to the bottom line in 10 days with The Hunger Games, including the international rights take. Now that the fans of the books have seen The Hunger Games, the "negative" reviews regarding the subject matter should continue to drum up press, getting people on the fence into the theater to see what all the fuss is about. This will have legs.
I mean, does Lion's Gate make money on any of their other ventures at all? Will the final Twilight, Cabin in the Woods, and Anger Management lose money? The preview for What to Expect When You Are Expecting also played particularly well with the crowd at my viewing of HG.
Any doubts that they cannot execute the launch of the Ender's Game franchise with their partners at Scholastic? I mean, I got Ender's Game as a gift from my mother-in-law five years ago! The first book of the series is fantastic and should generate a cult following (the next few books get a little weird so a cult following will be needed). Ender's Game is required reading in some military schools by the way.
I project that LGF can parlay these franchises and more into $2.50+ EPS per share on a consistent basis. Short term catalysts will prove to earn more (Ender's Game and the HG will run concurrently). We need upgrades, and we need them soon.
LGF is drowning in debt. Any profits seen by HG will not be seen by investors. LGF is already up 70% in the past 9 months.....it is over-valued at $14.00; therefore people will continue to take profits in this dog. We will see $10 before we see $16 again. Get out while you have a chance.
ROFLMAO - I believe we have found a shortie in trouble. I love amateurs who actually believe they can move a mountain with a skateboard. Good luck and have a happy next week .... yoooooouuuuccccchhhhhh
The fourth quarter will have the movie revenue through Saturday, the revenue from the DVDs for the newest Twilight release and soundtrack sales from the Hunger Games.
On the other side of the ledger I would not be surprised to see write off for the other releases in the quarter
Darkest Hour 21.4 million B.O.
Man On a Ledge 18.6 million B.O.
Gone 11.5 million B.O.
One For The Money 26.4 million B.O.
The primary reason that LGF has stumbled lately is that analysts arent very impressed, and some feel that the stock is fully valued at current levels.
Upgrades would authenticate the higher EPS that appears inevitible to you & I. If we dont get them, we'll just have to wait 2-3 more Q's and let the earnings speak for themselves. Thats why I rate the
stock a "hold"...it could be awhile.
Disagree. The primary reason the stock has stalled over the past week or so is because of insider trading, not because insiders don't believe in the company, but because they desperately want to cash in and make some money at levels never seen before for LGF. These people have waited a loooong time to turn their options into cash. LGF stock should start to rebound nicely this week. LONGS will be rewarded handsomely.