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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

  • rheingoldismybeer rheingoldismybeer Aug 10, 2012 1:25 PM Flag

    Show Me the $$$... Shaky Grounds for a "Buy"...

    S&P's 12-month price target is $16. That's about 18% upside in 12 months.

    But there's an incredibly long time until LGF is going to see any money---read that PROFITS---from their four "tentpoles" (expected blockbusters): three "Hunger Games" sequels and the last "Twilight." Nov/Dec 2013 will see the FIRST HG sequel and "Ender's Game" (unproven as tentpole film). In that quarter, the marketing expenses will be huge---no it won't just be spent on social media. And management was not clear regarding the PROFITS per episode they would realize if "Anger" is picked up. Not even an estimate or range.

    Thus, you're looking at about five to six quarters at least until LGF realizes a (potential) profit from any of these tentpole films. How will the stock price reflect that fact? Throw in a potential big theatrical disappointment and you have very shaky grounds for a "Buy" on this stock, even with $200 million+ in future deleveraging. Good luck.

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