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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

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  • rheingoldismybeer rheingoldismybeer Aug 10, 2012 1:35 PM Flag

    Show Me the $$$... Shaky Grounds for a "Buy"...

    I'm not a short or long, awipe. I was long for the last 12 months. Now I'm on the sidelines. Buyer or holder beware.

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    • good move buying the real estate with lgf are right about
      this stock.going nowhere.longs are reason to buy this now,so people wont.better moves elsewhere.just having your money sitting in this for now is a waste .of course they dont want to hear it.we know

      • 1 Reply to fedler50
      • Hi Fedler,
        I feel the same frustration that this stock isn't basing at 16 at this point, but I still feel the transformation story is intact. Here for the long term....until my research indicates any changes. All analyst reports support my same calculations indicate that LGF exceeded consensus when excluding all noncash items (the P&A pullforward is the only cash number related to future quarter movies). I know you have been here for awhile and I wish you the best.....we all have our investing time horizon and perhaps you feel you spent more time here than you wanted at this point....but based on what is known at this time, the stock should appreciate over the next year unless any other indications present themselves.

        EBITDA consensus: 55
        Actual EBITDA: 17

        Difference: 38

        P&A pullfoward 18
        Noncash Summit
        Step-up Amort 20 (estimated at 15-25)
        Noncash w/o
        debt discount
        from early
        retirement 8
        Noncash Stock Comp 4

        Total Adjs: 50
        EBITDA after adjs 67
        versus consensus 55
        exceeds by 12 +21.8%

34.24+0.30(+0.88%)4:02 PMEST