Hi Fedler,
I feel the same frustration that this stock isn't basing at 16 at this point, but I still feel the transformation story is intact. Here for the long term....until my research indicates any changes. All analyst reports support my same conclusion...my calculations indicate that LGF exceeded consensus when excluding all noncash items (the P&A pullforward is the only cash number related to future quarter movies). I know you have been here for awhile and I wish you the best.....we all have our investing time horizon and perhaps you feel you spent more time here than you wanted at this point....but based on what is known at this time, the stock should appreciate over the next year unless any other indications present themselves.
EBITDA consensus: 55
Actual EBITDA: 17
Difference: 38
Adjustments:
P&A pullfoward 18
Noncash Summit
Step-up Amort 20 (estimated at 15-25)
Noncash w/o
unamortized
debt discount
from early
retirement 8
Noncash Stock Comp 4
Total Adjs: 50
EBITDA after adjs 67
versus consensus 55
exceeds by 12 +21.8%