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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

  • wanna_million wanna_million Aug 11, 2012 12:02 PM Flag

    The Wave is in our technical favor!!!!!

    I have been waiting weeks for this! We got the signal yesterday at 13.25 that we are into Elliot Wave 3......Enjoy the ride! I hope the technicals do not disappoint us! GLTA


    Wave 3













    •Implication
    •Description
    •Important Characteristics
    •Trading Considerations


    Implication

    Prices rise rapidly and volume is usually extremely high in the wave 3 hence one needs to get on board as soon as possible and not wait for any pullback. Anyone waiting for the pullback to enter will be sorry as any intermediate pullbacks will be short-lived and shallow.

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    Description

    Wave 3 is the longest and the strongest of all five waves of an Elliott wave cycle and hence the most profitable one. Investors want to get on board in wave two (while stock is still doing a pullback from wave 1). It is during the Wave 3 that most of the investors will realize that the previous trend is over.

    Important Characteristics

    In price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among waves 1, 3 and 5. This is good check to validate the wave count. Wave 3 is usually at least 1.618 times as large as wave 1 in price terms but it will probably take less than 1.618 times as long to complete since it is very strong, Momentum almost always confirms the price highs. Wave 3 is not a straight up move. It should develop in five clear impulsive waves, three up and two down.

    This may not be entirely true as One of the waves, 1, 3, or 5, will often (but not always) be much longer (extended) than the other two. Usually it turns out to be wave 3. If wave 3 is the longest then wave 1 and 5 will be of normal size. Same can be true about wave 1 and wave 5 as well. If any one of the waves is the longest them other two will be of normal size.

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    Trading Considerations

    This bullish (bearish) signal indicates that the price may rise (fall) from the close. When you can find stock that is beginning a wave three, you want to hold on to your position for a longer time frame. Do not consider this as a little swing trade; instead, treat it as a trend trade.

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    • FWIW: Down from 9/9 close 50.88 PT changed to 46.62

      Elliott Wave Trend
      Current State: Wave 3 (Bullish)
      Event Date: Sep 27, 2013
      Close at Event: 35.84
      Target Price: 46.62
      Latest wave in the eight wave cycle.

    • Wow...latest pattern target increased from 40.88 to 49.27---GLTA!!!! The trend is our friend

      Elliott Wave Trend
      Current State: Wave 5 (Bullish)
      Event Date: Sep 05, 2013
      Close at Event: 36.37
      Target Price: 49.27
      Latest wave in the eight wave cycle.

    • Wow....Price target for Wave 5 has been bumped up from 36.56 to above 40 based on yesterday's close...see below:
      Elliott Wave Trend
      Current State: Wave 5 (Bullish)
      Event Date: Jul 12, 2013
      Close at Event: 32.89
      Target Price: 40.88
      Latest wave in the eight wave cycle.

    • Hi Outlaw...just as you requested the Wave pattern yesterday, this morning Recognia detected a new Wave Pattern based on yesterday's close. Apparently, we are now on Wave 5, not Wave 1. I still like to think that a 60+ price target is achievable going into 2015 based on LGF executing their plan. In the near term, it looks like we are headed for $36+. This pattern is 470days long and we are well into Wave 5, so I think this price target will be achieved before the end of the year. But of course, the patterns are forever evolving, so stay tuned for updates.
      Elliott Wave Trend
      Current State: Wave 5 (Bullish)
      Event Date: May 28, 2013
      Close at Event: 28.95
      Target Price: 36.56
      Latest wave in the eight wave cycle.

    • Latest update on Elliott Wave:
      View anticipated events for this symbol.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Elliott Wave Trend
      Current State: Wave 3 (Bullish)
      Event Date: Apr 16, 2013
      Close at Event: 22.88
      Target Price: 33.60
      Latest wave in the eight wave cycle.

    • Okay....The Elliott wave pattern has reset and as of yesterday it has determined that we have started wave 3 on a pattern duration of 104 days versus 90 days last time. So the calculation go up. The price target is now 21.76 before March 2013. I will take that. Here are the details. Wave 1 began on 5/4 at a close of 11.47; it ended on 9/7 at a close of 15.81 That price increase is 4.34. According to the technicals, Wave 3 should be about 1.618x this price increase....therefore, I calculate an increase of 7.02. Wave 3 began on 9/26 with a close of 14.74. Adding 7.02 to that price gives me a target of 21.76. The technicals indicate that the price target should be achieved in less tan 1.618 times that it took for Wave 1 to Complete. Wave 1 was about 100 trading days; therefore we should achieve our $22 price target before March. This wave is usually the fastest and the most exciting. Remember, Wave 3 is not a straight up move. It should develop in five clear impulsive waves, three up and two down. Strap yourself in and enjoy the ride...I love Elliott Waves! If momentum is on our side...this will confirm that we are on our way. However, given the longer duration of this pattern, I am not certain how fast these waves will occur. Will keep you posted if I see anything.

    • Wow! I just checked the 9/7 closing technicals and we got a confirmed outside breakout!!!!!!!! Target 19.90 - 20.80......can't help but share my excitement......this is fun for a change.

      Implication

      An Upside Breakout is considered a bullish signal, marking a breakout from a trading range to start a new uptrend.

      Description

      An Upside Breakout occurs when the price of a financial instrument breaks out through the top of a trading range. This Technical Event indicates that prices will rise explosively over a period of days or weeks as an almost vertical uptrend appears.
      Trading Considerations

      Inbound Trend

      The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.

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      Criteria that Support

      Duration of Trading Range

      The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The longer the duration of the trading range the more significant the breakout.

      Narrowness of Trading Range

      The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a small difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it narrow) then the breakout is considered stronger and more reliable.

      Support or Resistance

      Look for a region of support or resistance around the target price. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.
      Moving Average
      Prices which quickly move 50% above the 200-day Moving Average strongly support this pattern.

      Moving Average Trend

      Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. The Moving Average should change direction within the duration of the pattern and should now be heading in the direction indicated by the pattern.

      Volume

      A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume during the duration of the pattern should be declining on average.

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      Criteria that Refute

      Duration of the Trading Range

      The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The shorter the duration of the trading range the less significant the breakout.

      Narrowness of the Trading Range

      The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a large difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it wide) then the breakout is considered weaker and less reliable.

      No Volume Spike on Confirmation

      The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.

      Moving Average Trend

      Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. A Moving Average that is trending in the opposite direction to that indicated by the pattern is an indication that this pattern is less reliable.

      Short Inbound Trend

      An inbound trend that is significantly shorter than the pattern duration is an indication that this pattern should be considered less reliable.

      • 4 Replies to wanna_million
      • Duration of the Trading Range

        The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The shorter the duration of the trading range the less significant the breakout.
        The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a small difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it narrow) then the breakout is considered stronger and more reliable.

        My program indicates that trading range is 24 weeks....this is GREAT......indicating that when the price does move....it will be significant. The measurement was from March and the horizontal trading range of high 15.87 and low of 12.....a difference of 3.87 ......not sure if this counts as a very narrow trading range, so I am not certain how to evaluate if the breakout is considered stronger and more reliable based on the tutorial above. Does anyone with technical background care to define how many points or percentage is considered narrow for this pattern? The percentage change 3.87/12 is 32% or 24% based on the high price.

      • I focus on this explanation of the outside breakout pattern:

        Inbound Trend

        The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.

        According to my program.....the inbound trend is 0 weeks....bummer...so we may have a period of consolidation before the price move to 20 begins.

      • You're absolutely right, this IS fun for a change. Over the past 6 months I've gone from 1 position in LGF to 8 positions presently. This accounts for 62% of my portfolio, which goes against my usual better judgement. I'm a bit relieved now about my decision to buy LGF on the dips, but will feel better when I can sell a few positions!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I emphasize this portion:
        Support or Resistance

        Look for a region of support or resistance around the target price. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.

        LGF WILL MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH AT $20 SO NOT SURE IF THIS APPLIES TO THIS INSTANCE. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF $20 BECOMES OUR NEW STRONG REGION OF SUPPORT.

        Moving Average
        Prices which quickly move 50% above the 200-day Moving Average strongly support this pattern.

        LET'S WATCH THIS IN THE TRADING DAYS TO COME. I WOULD WELCOME AN EXPLOSIVE MOVE UP IF THIS WILL BE OUR NEW SUPPORT REGION AND NOT JUST A PUMP AND DUMP ACTION.

    • Wave 3 is not a straight up move. It should develop in five clear impulsive waves, three up and two down.


      One UP and now this one down......2 more ups and one down to go!

    • both the weekly and daily parabolic SAR show an uptrend. Still, fundamentals drive stock prices. We need close to outstanding box office gross on Expendables 2 this weekend to boost the price higher.

    • Article validates technical analysis $17-20 price movement this quarter:

      http://www.investorplace.com/2012/08/take-your-portfolio-to-see-hunger-games/

      The international and domestic growth stock markets broke out in December 2011 and again in January 2012 before topping out in March, by which point LGF had doubled in price. We have also noticed that rallies in LGF have historically been more likely to occur toward the second half of any year because the company tends to commit resources early in the year preparing for those latter (more important) quarters. We expect this pattern to continue this year as well.

      Finally, the short-term technicals are also confirming the potential for a continued breakout this quarter. The stock bounced off support between $13-13.50 early this week and broke through to over $14. Although there is some short-term potential resistance near $15 per share, a continuation of the prior trend could hit $16.50-$17 per share by the next earnings report (indicated by the green bar on the next chart).

      Earnings estimates have already been raised 82% for the next quarter — which is dramatic, and very unusual among LGF’s peer group.


      Lions Gate Films (LGF)Chart courtesy of MetaStock


      Earnings estimates for next quarter are higher than they were for the first quarter of 2012, when the stock was priced at $16 per share. There is also a strong consensus estimate that revenue in 2013 will finally start to rise after remaining flat for most of 2010-2012. Those estimates are likely to be confirmed next quarter and could send the stock over $20 per share quite easily if global economic conditions ease.

      In short, we love finding undervalued but aggressive firms like this during a soft market

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LGF
32.75+0.11(+0.34%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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