So, I have lost too much money on stocks that have gone parabolic and then sharply corrected. I sold my 400 shares at 21.47, and then bought 5 books with a 22 strike for .25. I have no intention of actually ever giving up "full" ownership of this stock until a buyout, merger or after the Hunger Games films have been completed. However, if memory serves, this stock hadn't been above 16.09 until a couple months ago. So, because content is King, the likes of Netflix and other content generators are headed straight to the moon. LGF has 4 of the top 10 videos on demand. This weekend should sow at least 2 million in BD2 DVD sales. In fact, I want to say that BD1 yielded something like 3.2 in the first weekend. I just don't remember, and again I'm lazy. I wonder now when or if this stock will have any substantive pullback. There simply seems to be very few sellers. Unlike many of you, I don't see a buyout or merger soon, because I can't understand why a prospective buyer wouldn't want to get in NOW as opposed to after Catching Fire. Anyway, I've had a checkered history with stock ownership. Not with Lions Gate. Good luck everyone. I'm looking forward to the release on the BD2 DVD sales!
I agree with Joe regarding $35-40. Wanna did a detailed analysis awhile back and, as best I recall, arrived at a $35-50 buyout range. Personally, I think around $35 is most likely, but I would certainly love $40!
As far as justifying a $21.80 stock price goes, I look at it this way: There is no way this company will be bought at $25. Therefore, I am comfortable with any stock price under $25 in the shortterm.
I would be surprised if a buyout doesn't occur within 6 months. I don't buy stocks based upon their buyout potential. Originally, I would have expected a possible buyout in a year or two. That was before the Burns interview. I've seen thousands of interviews and if this company was not for sale, Burns would have stated flat out that this company was not for sale. That's not exactly what happened.
I have very little doubt that LGF is actively seeking a buyer. Although I've bought and sold LGF shares on the side, I would never sell my original shares which I started buying below $12. No one wants to wake up one morning, without shares, and read headlines about a buyout!
Hey Joe. I have no doubt that this stock ultimately will go much higher, but don't you think at some point it has to pause, and maybe even back and fill? I'm not going to cry about making money though. My first sale of 800 shares at 18.37 was followed by a option strike purchase at 19, rolled out and up to 20 after a week, was put to those calls, and now I'm doing it again. I certainly don't mind. Personally, I find the straight up movement a little disconcerting if there isn't some sort of news about a merger or buyout. I buy the options to greatly reduce my risk. Anyway, thanks for your input. Have a good weekend.