IMO LGF, based on 3 billion in sales is worth between $38 -$53
$53 would be an acquisition value based on 2.5x sales (see Acquisitiona Analysis thread for more details)
$38 is based on 14.5x my EBITDA projection of $366.5million (LGF stated that EBITDA tracks Free Cash Flow and the average Price to Cash multiple 14-15x for the industry so I use 14.5x)
However, this can change dramatically with explosive growth of TVGN or other revenues. For example, if TVGN achieves valuation of $1.1billion in one year due to dramatic viewership ratings, then add at least $5 (based on my comparison analysis of TVGN to AMCX) to the range making it $43 - $58
In addition...the whole content craze/bubble can wildly upgrade this range as new digital players are coming to the field every day---especially internationally. AND the CATCHING FIRE/DIVERGENT mania will certainly have a temporary effect of inflating stock prices---keep some trading shares handy
Well the price DIS paid for Lucus I don't think can be compared with LGF. To much in merchandize sales with Lucus. I dont think you could use MVL eaither for the same reasons.
I will say I saw the new Matt Damon flick on Imax this weekend and a good preview for Enders was attached to it.
Hello Wanna -
Thanks a million for your detailed opinion. You have been right from day one. My fear of downgrades froom GS and others CNBC etc is overcome with your opinion. I really appreciate your time and thoughts.
Also, i wanted to point out that they just opened March 2014 opitions (Good for next 8 month). I know you had mentioned you may be interested. This will cover the release time of Enders Game, Catching fire and possibly Divergent. Anyway,
Good luck and Thanking you once again!