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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

  • steelcitymuskys steelcitymuskys May 7, 2014 10:01 PM Flag

    Will this thing ever go up?

    I'm a frustrated long- LGF down on market up days and down on market down days- what gives?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • This is a cyclical play if you are active and a "set-and-forget" play (hold) if you are not. MVL (X-men, Spiderman) whipsawed between 14 - 25 based on the release of the Spiderman movies. It would pop leading into a release and drop after the shine of the box office numbers waned.

      MVL did not have the broad revenue options of LGF (TV, Distribution, FIlm). If you bought at $25 and sold at $15 it was a lousy stock. I bought at 17 and sold at 30. If you steadily accumulated and did not worry, the $50 per share DIS buyout was great for any entry price. Should have stayed in it and made $60,000 more.

      In 2015, LGF will have revenue from two tent pole release movies and will have broadened its licensing revenue and improved its foreign rights %. It will also have much less debt and lower outstanding shares. Cash flow is king, and LGF continues to generate FCF.

      If you need the money tomorrow, it is a tough call. If you have 18-24 months, turn the pillow over to the cool side and rest easy.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • It can hang out here for awhile as long as it stops droping- The main catalist will happen at the next earnings report- not this one-

      • 1 Reply to syd_thekid45
      • Why do you think that? I think both of the next two earnings reports will be catalysts. Estimated EPS is only $0.41 this quarter and $0.26 next quarter. In May they will announce earnings that include 2/3 of the theatrical release of CF plus home video sales of Escape Plan and Ender's Game which both did decent in that department. I am not sure if the first couple of weeks of CF DVD sales will be included in this quarter or not but they were great. Don't forget the other contributions by TV, catalog titles and EPIX. I think most people have forgotten that most of CF theatrical has not been accounted for yet.

        Next quarter will be all about Divergent and CF home video sales.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I don't see any short term catalysts that will drive it higher other than earnings report, and even that will get picked apart

      Sentiment: Hold

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