LGF is expected to earn 17 cents this quarter. That's the average estimate as of this morning (August 25). Trouble is, 17 cents was the average estimate about a month ago, before the dire box office results for EXP 3 and Step Up were known. And EXP 3 took a large hit this weekend vs. last weekend at the box office. 17 cents this quarter? Don't bank on it.
So you think these 2 movies are their major revenue source? When were expenses for these movies booked? Was there a fee paid for the television rights to Hunger Games and Divergent? Were any other parts of their library able to generate added revenues? How are DVD sales? These are all questions which you ignore responding to analyst estimates that are revised... how frequently? If you are uncomfortable, sell.
Will this large hit be offset by VOD and streaming media in China? The only thing I bank on is continued consolidation in this sector because of the value of content. With LGF having over 16000 titles in their library it would appear they would be a major target for anyone looking to pick up content.