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Tel Offshore Trust Message Board

  • papajohnw papajohnw Jun 19, 2002 2:13 PM Flag

    More Analysis

    (Posting on both the NCN and TELOZ boards)

    I have uploaded some more on TELOZ. The url is

    http://www.geocities.com/papajohnw/Teloz/TelozIndex.html

    On the left side of that page are links to:
    - My notes on the 2001 10-K
    - A chart showing financial data by quarter

    I've also updated the "Reserves and Production Decline" article, based on feedback from the two boards. (Thanks, everyone.)

    It had been my intention to do more analysis, but I've been a bit busy. So, for now I'm just posting this "raw" data. Hope you find it helpful. If I get time, I will post a bit more analysis.

    As always, I'd appreciate your comments. The payback I'm looking for in posting this work is to learn how to do DD better in this sector. (That is, I would do the work anyway, but the extra work of putting it into web pages like this is because I selfishly want to learn more.)

    Thanks,

    --PapaJohnW

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    • Did you ever imagine a year ago, when there were often no daily trades and maybe one message per week on this board, that TELOZ would ever come to this degree of popularity?? Your analysis was good, but who could have expected that all these investors would bid our trust units so far above $5.? This all simply shows that when good research finds a situation about which few stock market people are aware, great profits (growth and distributions) can accrue. Thanks for sharing info last year, and hope you are well. BF

      • 1 Reply to Bottomfisher1
      • Hi Bottomfisher,

        Thanks for the kind words. This has indeed been pretty amazing. As my kids are fond of saying, "Sweet!" I'm enjoying the nostalgia with you.

        I guess I now have a new (tongue-in-cheek) rule for investing: Find something good that know one knows about, then wait for somebody to publish an article about it at some popular web site! Now, if I could only figure out how to implement such a rule..... :-)

        There are several thoughts that come to mind with this:

        1. The importance of a good community: It was NHY who originally pointed me in this direction, so.... Thanks NHY!

        2. The importance of patience. I think we all get a pat on the back for getting in and just letting this thing come to us. Took over a year. (I think patience flies in the face of the expect-instant-returns-mentality of many investors.)

        3. And like you said, the importance of good research. Gave us the confidence to wait it out.

        I've been occasionally looking at the yahoo boards; but we're currently building a house and I'm doing a lot of the finish work; doesn't leave much time to manage the portfolio as well as I'd like. (Wife is anxious to move in before school starts.) Be interested to learn what the next TELOZ is going to be, though. Any ideas?

        --papajohnw

    • thanx yet again , papa J........

      i might add that I believe that TELOZ at $3 already reflects a 0 distribution likely for many quarters to come .............

      and commodity prices decline in oil/gas will send other RTs that ARE paying a dividend alot lower .............................

      • 1 Reply to bond_dadddy
      • in 1998 , the price of TELOZ ranged from 5.75 to 3.60.........

        it paid a total of 1.15 in distributions......

        the price of crude oil in 1998 ranged from a high of 17.82 to a low of 10.76 per barrel ....

        the average price YTD of crude oil in 2002 is
        23.87 and currently trades at 25.45 .........


        yes , depletion is real and we can't expect TELOZ to pump as much out of ground today as it did in 1998 but clearly the potential (if oil can hang at $25/barrel) to see distributions at 75% of 1998 levels exists which would give those long at $3 a 25% yield.

 
TELOZ
0.595+0.046(+8.40%)Aug 28 3:43 PMEDT

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