Reading the conference call and looking at current oil production estimates it's my belief that western ok oil production has not been factored in. Tom wouldn't give a breakout of their 2011 oil production but he did mention that western ok would only make up 1 bcf of the total ng production for next year. It seemed like he accidentally let it slip. If that's the case western ok IS NOT in guidance. 11.2 mm bbls is only 30.6k bopd. SD is currently producing over 28k bopd right now! We are adding tons more activity next year. Western ok could add maybe 3 to 4mm bbls of crude to guidance. At $90 this is VERY significant. It's unhedged production. Think about it guys.
I just read the transcript and was thinking the same thing. Surprised none of the analysts raised this question. In Q3 they went from 24k/day to 28k/day so 30.6k/day average for all of 2011 seems like a pretty conservative and/or laughable estimate considering the number of new wells being drilled.
However, I'm no guru so maybe I'm missing something about the way these wells decline in production over time.