For 9 bucks. I am having a hard time envisioning TPG and Leon going into a 3 year plan to build SD into a 10 dollar common stock. That is a tough way to make 4 bucks a share. I look for a "White", or maybe "not so White" (Chinese) knight to come in here and buy this off of our hands. Maybe 8-9 bucks quickly. Good enough.
I agree that selling the company in the $9 - $11 range could happen but, of course, many investors would like to see the $14-$16 range. There may be a short squeeze now as it should trend up on this news, which could accelerate the "pop". However, there are many things to consider with the macro situation if the US deals with further sagas in politics over the ongoing fiscal mess. Also, the general commodities markest and oil markets are further macro situations that may subdue the process a bit. However, if TPG takes definitive direction, has clear communication, and make decisions that benefit value, we should be better off regardless.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Too many shares and too much debt to sell for $9. Tom screwed the shareholders again when he sold the PER. It just might be the next Eagle Ford according to many Texas Oil men. Tom sold the shareholders down the drain once again.
I have to disagree with you. They have another arm of the company set up to go into company's just like SD and lean out unnecessary expenses. This is not their first rodeo...I see a ten bagger in the making. At Armstrong they killed all unnecessary expenses, then took a loan out and paid themselves a special dividend. I did some math on the back of a napkin, and they paid off their original investment almost with two special dividend payments. Took that capital and moved on to the next target. They are good at what they do. Trust me.
I hope you are right patrick. Drilling and Fracking and pipelining and water disposal and road building costs alot of money. The only way to keep the leases, and maintain production, is to "drill baby drill", and then "frack baby frack". If TPG says stop drilling, the Mississippian will be on a pump and/or compressor by early 2015. I just want TW to be found out if he has stolen our money.
Take at look at Chesapeake Energy if you want to see what to expect with a new board. CHK was at 17 prior to the new board and it went up 25% on the news. You would expect SD to follow a similar path to around $7.00 to $7.50. SD has a ton of debt that will be unattractive to anyone looking to buy the co. The Chinese have already invested big in the shale with CHK so I would think that puts them off the list of buyers.
If this debt ridden outfit gets a bid for anything above 10, TPG will have to uncover about $1B+ in assets which TW has been hiding in his Family Trusts. I don't think we have it in the ground anymore with the Permian sale. I just can't see Leon Cooperman and TPG waiting very long.
With all the damage Tom has done to the company, looking for 15 is not real. We will be lucky to see 9 in a year. Need to have a oil company come in and buy the company. and they could do it at 8 today.