1) SD back at $4.80 - Market-wide swoon, back at key resistance level for SD. Pullbacks are healthy, there are some bargains to be had right now for anyone with cash
2) Oil price outlook - yes it may drop further but most of the easy oil has gone so there is a cost profile supporting the price and limiting the downside. High-cost producers in areas that get less than WTI will feel it most. Bakken producers who have not railed a significant amount of their production to St James for LLS pricing for example.
3) While US & World growth is weak the commodities producers will have days like yesterday on a piece of bad news. We have to wait a while for Europe (much longer than expected by some), China will surprise both ways from time to time and their figures are made up anyway.
4) SD picked up the Miss Lime properties for around $200 per acre. Some of the extension already has proven to be economically viable but other parts will not (see Encana). You cannot expect success everywhere but as the price of the ticket was so low it is not as if massive sums were wasted.
5) This back and forth about TW is getting very tired. Said it before and said it again, TW made one horrendous move by going for NG with WTO at the outset, EVERY other buy/sell/spin-off move has been fantastic, even if wall st. does not appreciate them as they hated being blindsided by his opportunistic moves. The flip-side is he was too greedy, too lavish and has allowed questions over his ethics to affect the company. TW took the long-view regarding the stock price, invest in the infrastructure and take a hit in the medium term to get much better returns in the long term, he cannot control the siock price. I believe that every buy/sell move he made has positioned SD for this year and beyond, harvest time is now. That is why TPG saw this as a fantastic opportunity with perfect timing.
Price of oil over time will go up and down. Reports of growth in China's economy changes on a dime. Capex as others have posted is already funded...But an important issue is reduction in Capex that will occur ...such as ESPS. Oil production will go up significantly as most productive areas are targeted. Imho
i agree with pretty much everything you said here. i'd like to further add that tom would never have gotten any good returns because he siphoned off everything. i don't as much think tpg saw an opportunity to take over the company as they lost patience with ward and didn't want him to run the thing into the ground. ward has no idea how to properly manage a company. he's just a wheeler dealer, and sd needs intelligent management now.
i've got control of 35k shares now with 25k outright and 10k through options. if we get an $8 price, i'm all good. my intention is to hold through liquidation.
Whatz UP???? I've butted heads with just about everyone here. Encluding YOU, then you turn around and post THIS. Which is just about everything i have been Just Sayin, for the last few months!!!! The ONLY difference i see is punctuation and spelling, you appear to be a writer!!! Thanks i know i could have never said it as nicely!! Not too many posters here not on my, not to hit list...LOL...Thats all I can Say!!!
1)That is all this company is worth.
2)Reduction in price of Oil hurts this company worse than most, NG still not in the profit range for WTO to come back online.
3)Yes stocks will react to negative news, problem is this stock doesn't react with positive news. Other producers had nice run ups in past month, this one sank.
4)SD will have to write down much of the extension. No capex left to build out infrastructure. Without infrastructure the extension is worthless. Land might have been cheap but the infrastructure to drill it is not. (TW conveniently left that cost off his well costs?)
5)TW wasn't thinking long term at all. At most SD looks 12-18mths ahead. The destruction of the trusts eliminate that funding avenue. Adding more debt at this time will kill the stock. Loss of permian production will show up this quarter in both production numbers and revenues. Dynamic might have been a decent move anywhere else but here. Mass increase in debt and dilution. No assets left to sell (midstream/saltwater-disposal - thats all thats left) Only long term solution is to cut capex dramatically, which will mean production increases will crawl back up to 2012 levels when Permian was included. This will make this stock linger at $5 for a few years.
Only play is NG coming back above $5. I think that is when the WTO becomes profitable. So its a high risk stock and $5 is obviously the correct valuation.
WTO is all upside to SD, wasn't it all written down a quarter ago? SD is a Miss Lime play, pure and simple.
Long term thinking does not mean doing NOTHING in the short term. It means making moves in the short/medium term with a long term goal in mind. Now as SD has the best debt/leverage position in the company's history, has 2013 & 2014 capex fully funded, has no near-term debt maturities, has 11,000 drilling locations, has built out the infrastructure to become the low-cost producer in the play etc etc. I think you can safely say he was thinking long term.
if you cannot see that then good luck to you.