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SandRidge Energy, Inc. Message Board

  • timecruiser7 timecruiser7 Apr 17, 2013 12:40 AM Flag

    SD Serious investors...Please Join the Challenge...The Prize.. Know the value of the Miss. Acreage

    Lots of posters on this board are sharp people with lots of ability. So...I purpose to have a contest to estimate the value of the Miss. acreage. Now I purpose a simpler calculation than some of you might like...but this is open to suggestions. The Prize....SD investors will have a pretty good idea of the value of the Miss. Acreage.
    Not some analysts agenda...but a solid calculation for all to see.

    Here's my suggestion for the calculation which is based upon the sale price of the permian, the area of the Miss., the area of the Perm, the cost per barrel of production for Miss. and the cost per barrel for perm.
    I could be wrong...but open to suggestions.Others may suggest "enhancements".

    To start things off:

    Using dimensional analysis my equation is:

    Value of Miss. Acreage= Price Paid Acre Permian X ( Acres of Miss./Acres Perm)
    X Barrels Produced Per Acre Miss. X Cost Per Barrel Miss
    / Barrels Produced per Acre Perm. X Cost Per Barrel Perm.

    Note. Barrels produced per acre miss...must be based on having the same number of wells per acre as Perm.
    This would be the steady state, since wells are being drilled in Miss. and this would be a fair
    comparison.

    Note: I could not post the equation in one line...but lots of posters will get the idea.

    Open to suggestions....A work in progress.

    If we arrive at a good equation....Then lets discuss and define the value for each term of equation.

    My guess is that if many of our knowledgable posters participate, we will determine a fair value for the Miss. acreage...Probably with much better analysis than the "analysts with an agenda".

    The Prize...Know the estimated value of the Miss. Acreage.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "Value" is what someone is willing to pay for it. Estimating production is all you can do, then the most meaningful variable is speculating on the direction that crude and nat gas prices are going to take over the next 1,2,3,5 years. The functional relationship between production volumes multiplied by price (over time) are the key elements to determining the "Net Present Value". There is no simple "equation" that can be used to express the "value" of the Miss Lime, one needs to do a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis to determine NPV (Net Present Value).

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • After reading Rainbows Pieces of the Puzzle..I think he's posted a very sharp answer for evaluation of Miss. acreage....Hope to understand everything after I study it. From his post, after determining whether the increase in natural gas prices will offset the CO2 penalty...A good estimate of SD share value can be determined. imho
      Lots of work went into the Puzzle post...which I appreciate. Not necessary to have the challenge.

      • 3 Replies to timecruiser7
      • Listen to mullet Rainbow. The guy who said the permian is worth 12 Billion. LMAO you dumb okies never learn.

      • Read below:

        bogwa1406 bogwa1406 • 16 hours ago Flag4 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply You can argue until you're blue in the face over SD's valuation...it boils down to who you believe and
        I believe TPG/Cooperman would not have bought SD at share costs significantly higher than present if they believed the company was worth LESS than they paid. Their logic was to pay "More" than something is worth in order to take control and sell something for less than they paid for it ? I don't think so...and I doubled my bet yesterday.....yes "BET"...if TPG/Cooperman is wrong but I really don't think they made the move without significant valuation investigation, far in excess of what I have access to. This is purely betting on bigger Money with more resources...and my entry is at a much lower cost basis...so if they win...I really win...if they lose...I've torn up lottery tickets before...and lived. It is really that simple. GLTA Less

        qcman • 9 hours ago Flag0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Cooperman in at something like $6.40, Mount Kellett $8.59, TPG $6.52

        They both have stated it best!

        By the way, "analysts with an agenda". Like people on the message boards don't have any agendas.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Make sure you read Motley Fool Article dated April 5, 2013. Is Sandridge a good buy at $5.00.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
SD
5.17-0.08(-1.52%)Aug 20 4:02 PMEDT

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