Certainly doesn't bode well as a time for selling in my book.I've more than doubled my position and lowered my cost basis substantially...I consider the present negative sentiment a gift. I maintain that TPG/Cooperman has a plan, and they have demonstrated actionable measures already via the board. I've got the patience...and thanks to the sell-off post TPG...I now have longer and stronger position. GLTA
If I'm not mistaken, the short term pop in natural gas has no effect on SD earnings because the price was negotiated (hedged) for at least a year in advance. Same goes for dips in oil price ... sales price for the year going forward has already been set. Only thing that will effect profit is volume of production and costs of that production.
Very little NG has been hedged, Thats why the rise in NG WILL effect earnings. While Oil has been hedged atleast 80% Hedges didn't go with the sale of the Permian. We haven't heard, what has happened to all the extra hedges that were in place. Will be interesting to find out!! were they sold at a profit or loss. Were some put into the Trusts to help firm them up?? We Don't know!!! I forget what % of NG was hedged RAINBOW will know. For some reason i thought it was around 12% but don't know why i think that!!! Goodluck....Just Sayin
Talked to IR and the business plan as presented in the latest presentation if on track. The optomistic projection for the 2nd qtr. will kick the stock up. It will be a strong qtr. for NG prices, TPG will focus on drilling in the high yield areas, and capex will be reduced to a realistic level. IR says that Sd has secured the best areas thru drilling and will not lose good property by not drilling further. Look for a beat on first qtr. and a good forecast for 2nd qtr.
I'm with you. The elephant in the room is the ESP's and the production from the wells.
Are we talking 250 bopd wells or 100 bopd wells for the future of the company. The update at the earnings call will help clear this up. I'm hoping the company provides a type curve with all ESP wells with 90+ days online. By now it should be close to ~150 wells. If that sample shows that oil production can be lifted by 100 bopd on average, I think we can finally relax and we have a very bright future.