I think SD has been overly discounted in lieu of the impending change in management and
the change in the BOD, reduction of BOD compensation, pending change in current management compensation, sale of planes, pending sale of non-core assets not to exclude the entire company. SD represents + 10 % of TPG's public holdings, I don't think they would have added to their position and jeopardized their performance unless they were certain they could get a good return for their efforts. We'll get to see soon enough in a couple of weeks @ earnings and CC and I would anticipate a decent % move in share price one way or the other with bias to the upside. I like my present cost basis...so I'm just holding position pending earnings...if there is a drop in share price, I'll decide post earnings and share performance whether I add more or not. I want to see the numbers and forward guidance for the FIRST TIME with someone who has a vested interest in control of the information being provided (TPG -BOD). Tom Ward isn't going to be able to play razzle-dazzle this time around. JMHO...GLTA
The strength of the US dollar combined sub-3% economic growth and low inflation expectations is a fundamental problem for all companies operating in the upstream O&G sector. Downstream O&G operators look okay. Nat gas price strength is not something we can plan on, not yet anyway. Nat gas will most like see 3s again before it sees 5s. Slowing down SDs ops (production, CAPEX) and reducing debt is the best strategy until strength in pricing returns. SD is going to have tough time showing "material" improvements in profitability for at least 12 months. Now is not a great time to be selling non-strategic assets that are not already cash-flow positive, but there is little choice, asset sales have to occur. We have to look forward to higher rates of inflation, lower US dollar and greater economic growth, we need all three. I don't see SD moving above $5 until MAYBE the 4th quarter. SD is a good value here, but only for value investors with a 24-36 month investment horizon.
Many positive things have happened recently in a short amount of time. Market prices stocks based upon the future events...not the past. On the other hand...some pi** poor analysts, who are short can drive the stock down. We should never have hit the $4.60 price. Just some analysts who are short...downgrading the stock and shorts jumping on the bandwagon.imho
Don't take it too personal, this entire sector has been beaten down. I'm not believing some of these stock prices. I believe sd would be sitting at it's 52 week low even if nothing had been going on with the company. Look around this morning, they are still taking some of em down. There will be a runnup soon, add some "good" news for sd, and here we go.
I see what's happening on APA, DVN, numerous others getting hammered with 52 week lows, but I still think SD is overly discounted. I would argue the present situation at SD is providing investors with the greatest opportunity the company has presented since inception. JMHO